How many Laps? (Closed)

OK. I was going to entitle this thread "How Many Laps Will Audi Win By This Year?", but decided to be optimistic.

So, not a case of who will win, but:

1) How many laps will the overall winners complete in 24 hours?

and

2) How many laps will their winning margin be?


(Remember, this has to be a weather prediction question as well.....).

:laugh:

I think that the winner will win by the distance to the car who finishes second!!!

This ones gonna be impossible to predict so i'm gonna go out on a whim and say..

Winner will complete 337 laps and will win by 1 lap. :)

I think you are well out there Paul. REMEMBER HOT and SUNNY

370 Laps with a 1 lap advantage.

SL

How many was it in 2000 and 2001 then?

I couldn't remember so I won't be surprised if that number is wrong!!

360 with a 3 lap advantage

ad 1.) plenty!
ad 2.) enough!

Results from 2001 Le Mans...

1. Infineon Audi R8 321 laps
2. Infineon Audi R8 - 1 lap
3. Bentley - 15 laps


My best Guess....330 Laps with 2 Lap advantage.

356 laps with a 2 lap margin to 2nd.

360 laps.

Winning car will be the Herbert/Capello/Pescatori car and it will be 1 laps ahead of the second Audi.

First non Audi will be 4th and 15 laps down.

OK i'm going to up mine to 355, maybe a small sprinkle of rain will slow things down a little!! ;)

I am paying a beer to who gets is right! :beer:

My bet is: winner will complete 341 laps and win by a 5-lap gap.

Cheers,

Muzza

herbert audi on 333 laps...with a 3 lap lead

i like symmetry

Think I agree with Hakkiman, I would go for an average lap time of 4 mins (including stops) to give a nice round 360 laps. Gap to second place, 1lap, could be less but that gives a nice formation finish without any possibility of nicking past on the line to get a win......

(a) 345 Laps
(b) 2 laps

Thats hopefully a win for the Herbert car, over the Bentley in 2nd.

Well done guys, keep 'em coming! Like the pole time thread, I will post a full list of predictions during the weekend before race week. Muzza's promised to get the beers in for whoever is closest (I guess that may have to be at Le Mans 2003 - unless we can meet up somewhere else sooner?!! ;) ).

Aysedasi and fellow racing nuts,

No kidding: I will pay a beer to the Ten Tenths member whose bet gets the closest to the final result.

The logistics will be a little tricky, but we will find a way.

Tentatively my racing calendar for the next months is:

April 14th, Long Beach, CART
May 26th, Indy 500, IRL
July 7th, Elkhart Lake, ALMS
June 16th, Portland, CART
August 18th, Elkhart Lake, CART
November 3rd, Fontana, CART

Canadian GP in Montreal and Petit Le Mans in Road Atlanta have been shaved off for lack of budget...

Cheers :beer: ,

Muzza

My guess
354 laps
Bentley from Audi #2 by 6 laps

Just for the Muzza Extra Special :beer: - wanna taste that ! - I'll go for : 351 laps (Audi n°1 :bag: ), leading Audi n°2 with 1 lap...

I'll have my beer at Elkhart lake, if I can find somenone to pay me the trip :laugh: ! I'll be at Classic 24 hours in September...

353 laps for Audi and the second Audi 2 laps down. :beer: :beer: :beer:

after a dramatic first lap fuel problem that took out the whole Audi team, only 5 cars left running after 24hrs.
winning margin 25sec
winning car Morgan 260 laps
or
Audi 1st Caddy 2nd
winning margin 7 laps 356 (fast)laps

1st place - Bentley 341 laps
2nd place - Panoz -1 lap
3rd place - Panoz -3 laps
4th place - Cadillac -10 laps
5th place - Cadillac -22 laps
DNF - Audi R8 #1
DNF - Audi R8 #2
DNF - Champion Audi R8

Hey, a guy can dream, can't he? :D

ayse...good luck picking thru the serious ones and the ones where the audis retire early!

Salut Fab,

I may go to the Historic Racing meeting in Elkhart Lake in September. Nothing sure for the time being, but if you win the "How Many Laps?" competition I might pay you the winner's beer there!

Otherwise, lucky you, man, living close to Le Mans! Also, on a rather disapointing note, nobody else manifested interest in the Circuit de Monthlery... Is this cause really lost?

A bien tot,

Muzza

Originally posted by kdr
ayse...good luck picking thru the serious ones and the ones where the audis retire early!

Cheers, looks like I'm going to need a beer or two to wade through them!

But then again, you never know. Audi have had everything their own way at Le Mans (and elsewhere) for a couple of years. We all know that anyhting at all can happen at Le Mans and there's a very long time for it to happen as well. Just look at the carnage in the opening moments of last year's race - you only need the Audi's to get tangled up in something like that and.....

....it seems pretty unlikely, I know, but we'll wait and see.

;)

Hello everyone - this is my first post and happy to be on board.

Audi with 347 laps in with a 4 laps lead over second place Bentley

You're in the hat, freeze!

Welcome to the Sportscar/GT forum, friend - hope to see you here regularly (provided that your name is not indicative of the weather at La Sarthe in June!). ;)

Originally posted by paulzinho
OK i'm going to up mine to 355, maybe a small sprinkle of rain will slow things down a little!! ;)

small sprinkles? Aren't they those things our Mums used to decorate their cakes with?

You can keep your small sprinkles in Kent that weekend, Paul! :laugh:

Hehehehe

Just teasing you!!!

Ooh, you are awful........... :p

Originally posted by Nordic
after a dramatic first lap fuel problem that took out the whole Audi team, only 5 cars left running after 24hrs.
winning margin 25sec
winning car Morgan 260 laps
or
Audi 1st Caddy 2nd
winning margin 7 laps 356 (fast)laps

Hey Nordic, I think you drank too much Muzza Special :beer: ... :laugh: what about a global withdraw and a race of Deboras :rotate: ... I've to stop, I'm turning mad... :bag:

How about 369laps completed with 17.2secs between lead Audi and MG!

OK, here's another interim update for you. Listed according to the highest number of laps completed (with the highest winner margin as the tie-breaker!):-

370/1 - SL
369/0 - Big Stu
360/3 - gtr69
360/1 - hakkiman
360/1 - iucrmh
356/7 - Nordic
356/2 - FastJoel31
355/1 - paulzinho
354/6 - rdjones
353/2 - hgb
351/1 - Fab
347/4 - freeze
345/2 - Oversteer
341/5 - Muzza
341/1 - Macka
333/3 - kdr
330/2 - Quattro


Henceforth, Quattro and kdr will be banned from this forum.

(They're obviously predicting rain! ;) ).

Any more for any more? :rotate:

You mean it's going to rain?? :eek: :D

Again good man, we appear to be missing YOUR prediction!! ;)

Mine?
I really don't care as long as there is a race.

I just hope I will buy MYSELF a beer! :)

ayse...don't ban me. nothing i ever predict comes true, so i figure if i plump for 333 laps...the sun is gonna shine!

I'm not in the hat yet, so I'll go for a nice round 350 laps. No science or theory there, it is just one of the few numbers left and puts me in the middle of the pack. It sounds about right though for a dry event with Audis cruising which is what I fear.

Originally posted by AllonFS
I'm not in the hat yet, so I'll go for a nice round 350 laps.

And the winning margin, Allon?

im goping to go for 325 laps, bentley winning with an MG in second 7 laps down, no, realyy I am!

Originally posted by Aysedasi


And the winning margin, Allon?
Oops, well spotted that man. 2 laps (between sodding Audis no doubt).

Originally posted by Aysedasi


And the winning margin, Allon?

Ahem, and your prediction?

Again, this "prediction" thread seems to have gone rather cold. Are you all done?

And Paul, I will have my go - when I'm good and ready.........:p

Looks as though you're all done on this one.

So I've added my own prediction.

The thread stays open until Friday, for anyone who hasn't had a stab yet.......

Here's the list again....


376/0 - paul-collins
370/1 - SL
369/0 - Big Stu
365/3 - Ayse
360/3 - gtr69
360/1 - hakkiman
360/1 - iucrmh
359/1 - AdamAshmore
356/7 - Nordic
356/2 - FastJoel31
355/1 - paulzinho
354/6 - rdjones
351/1 - Fab
350/2 - AllonFS
347/4 - freeze
345/2 - Oversteer
341/5 - Muzza
341/1 - Macka
333/3 - kdr
330/2 - Quattro
325/7 - TVRFan
324/1 - hgb

If it's sunny, you all are way off (except maybe SL and BigStu). Consider:
In 97 they went 361; in 98 they went 351, in 99 they went 366, and in 00 they went 368. Now they have direct inject in the Audis, so they should shave enough pitstops off their race for 2 or more laps.

I'll say 372, with the first two Audis on the same lap, the Bentley 2 laps back, and Oreca on the same lap as the Bentley (and racing to the line!).

I'm going for a bit of rain and they won't get to the 370 mark. Only a bit mind.

An Audi with 359laps with one lap lead over another Audi!

Since I'm committed to going the clear weather route, I've decided to look at a bit of history and revise my number. While the placement is still the same, I choose my ultimate race distance to be 376 - to be the furthest distance travelled since the Mulsanne chicanes were added.

I guess my feeling is that, with the way Audi has been running for the last few years, they're racing as much against history as they are against the cars around them. They would want to compare favourably with the GT40/917K/XJR-9/956s when their factory run is said and done...

As an aside, imagine the race pace in 1988 - 394 laps?!? Or 1971, 396 laps... I don't see Audi being capable of matching those distances with the chicanes, but a 380 is possible.

Interesting theory Paul. I've amended your "score". (I'm using and updating the "interim" post I did earlier today).

I can't agree with you though. With the new Dunlop to Esses section the Audis (my goodness, we're assuming quite alot - even for Audi!), will have to run at a faster pace than the Peugeots in '93 (375 laps) in blazing sunshine. I don't think they can/will do that.

But then, who am I to judge?!! ;)

I correct myself. The weather doesn't seem to be that good, maybe worse than last year. My new bet is 325 laps. The winner will be still an Audi (second too).

Oh, I collide with TVRfan (I'm a TVR fan as well you know. So maybe that's no surprise !!!). Make it 324 laps then. Audi is still my favorite. Was there a TVR in the race I would place my bets on it, and fail.

Weather worse than last year????

Now I'm wondering - what pace would Audi need...

How much track time is lost to standard fuel and tire stops?

What is the maximum number of laps per stop (assuming it's fuel that governs)?

What other stops are a given? Last year they changed out the electrics, the year before it was that 8 minute rear end change. But these are one-off stops, and while anticipated, not required.

Guesses, anyone? I'm just trying to figure out how much time is left to actually race over the hour, so I can see what lap pace they'd need for the milestones of the previous eras.

Originally posted by paul-collins
Weather worse than last year????



Ye Gods! If that's true I'm wearing my Mr. Blobby suit.

Now you better get a picture of that!!!!

Sorry, didn't mean to alarm you. I was reacting with incredulity to the post before mine, but it was separated by the pagination.

I still think you're going to have weak sun, ~24C high, and almost no rain.

Originally posted by Aysedasi

376/0 - paul-collins
370/1 - SL
369/0 - Big Stu
365/3 - Ayse
360/3 - gtr69
360/1 - hakkiman
360/1 - iucrmh
359/1 - AdamAshmore
356/7 - Nordic
356/2 - FastJoel31
355/1 - paulzinho
354/6 - rdjones
351/1 - Fab
350/2 - AllonFS
347/4 - freeze
345/2 - Oversteer
341/5 - Muzza
341/1 - Macka
333/3 - kdr
330/2 - Quattro
325/7 - TVRFan
324/1 - hgb

FG, you didn't vote !

Originally posted by paul-collins
Sorry, didn't mean to alarm you. I was reacting with incredulity to the post before mine, but it was separated by the pagination.
Don't worry, nothing is as alarming as the thought of Ayse in a Mr Blobby suit. :bag:

Originally posted by AllonFS

Don't worry, nothing is as alarming as the thought of Ayse in a Mr Blobby suit. :bag:

:bag: Please, have mercy and instruct the frog ! What's a Blobby suit ?

Big, pink and with yellow spots!!

Uh, not very pleasant then but easy to spot.

I'm guessing...
a. 154 laps
b. 2 laps

I don't really like it when the weather is constant - I like it a little better when the weather changes. Probably something like a rainstorm/shower towards the end of the race (sorry Aysedasi!). It spices things up a bit, you know? I'm not British, but this year, I think the overall winner should be the Bentley. I miss the GTP's and I'd like to see more of them. I'd also like to see the Morgan get the GT class victory (although I doubt that'll happen:laugh: ). If the Morgan doesn't do it (don't ask me WHY I'm saying this), I'll go for the Spyker. I bet that one'll have some technical problems, though. Ok, those are my predictions.

P.S. Is Mr. Blobby a cartoon character in Britain?

154 laps, way too low, surely?

And Mr Blobby was a man dressed up in a suit! I'll try and find a pic!

Heres the best I could find, its only a cuddly toy version, but it'll do!!

http://freespace.virgin.net/slampiece.inc/8/slaj.html

PS Sorry Ayse!!

Totally new to this forum, not to Le Mans. Saw the thread is open till friday. I say the #1 Audi will win by completing 371 laps, 4 laps behind them the Bentley, then the #2 Audi or maybe a Dallara. Let the weather be 10% 2001 and 90% 2000.....

Just to put Audi in there, here's a quote:

"Audi expects to have the greatest advantage over the opposition with the FSI-technology, successfully used for the first time when Audi achieved a 1-2 result last year. Because of the better fuel consumption, up to two refuelling stops could be saved in normal conditions, assuming the race length is around 5000 kms (3100 miles)."

-dsc

That would make Audi's prediction(5000 / 13.88 =) 360 laps.

Originally posted by me
How much track time is lost to standard fuel and tire stops?

What is the maximum number of laps per stop (assuming it's fuel that governs)?

What other stops are a given?
It seems that Audi last year were claiming 15 laps per stop would be normal with their FSI. Competitors thought 16 or 17 would be more likely. The technology has been developed since; say, 16 laps.

Say their on-track pace over the course of the race is 3:45. (that may be too agressive)

Say an average pit stop would be 4 minutes.

That leads to stints of 16 laps in 64 minutes - exactly on pace for 360 laps. (and 90 minutes total in pits)

If the pace is 3:35 per lap, the number of laps jumps to 375.65 laps and 24 pitstops. (96 minutes total in pits)

I can't seem to find anything that shows total pit time for previous races on the web, but 90 minutes seems high to me. It'll be interesting to see the outcome, and how the timing breaks down.

And the last of the three "closures".....

376/0 - paul-collins
371/4 - EliseGT1
370/1 - SL
369/0 - Big Stu
365/3 - Ayse
360/3 - gtr69
360/1 - hakkiman
360/1 - iucrmh
359/1 - AdamAshmore
356/7 - Nordic
356/2 - FastJoel31
355/1 - paulzinho
354/6 - rdjones
351/1 - Fab
350/2 - AllonFS
347/4 - freeze
345/2 - Oversteer
341/5 - Muzza
341/1 - Macka
333/3 - kdr
330/2 - Quattro
325/7 - TVRFan
324/1 - hgb
308/2 - RacerGuy2 (I've doubled your prediction - hope you don't mind!!)

And by the way, paul-collins, I'll accept weak sun and almost no rain!!
;)