Predictions competition(s) for Le Mans: Commentary

I've been giving a little thought to this year's Le Mans predictions competitions..........

Thanks to jhansen (:beer:), we now have our season long predictions competition in the sub-forum which is running supremely well. I am loathe to depart from the format that has been set up there and would like that competition to continue undisturbed and unaltered for Le Mans.

But Le Mans is different and I would also like to see the large numbers of members who have enthusiastically demonstrated their skills (or lack of them ;)) in the past get involved once again.

So, my thinking is this; jhansen will host the Le Mans round of the competition in our sub-forum to the rules of that competition, and the 'traditional' Le Mans polesitter/poletime + winner/laps competition should be run simultaneously in the main Sportscar and GT forum (the threads can then be moved to the Sub-Forum after the race).

If anyone has any objections to this proposal, please say so, it's completely open to discussion and amendment.

It does occur to me, however, that we would need someone who is properly qualified in such things to agree to run the 'traditional' competition in the main Sportscar and GT forum. Now, let me see........you don't suppose.......would he? ;)

edit: Competition thread can be found >>here (http://www.ten-tenths.com/forum/showthread.php?t=96539)<<.

He might just be open to that "if" you fill him up with red wine come June !!!

Oh , good idea 03 .

Hmmmmmm........

Well, if the person you have in mind can't do it, I guess I might be prepared to give it a go........

Assuming that this is the pre-competition discussion thread then, would anyone object if there was just one prediction thread instead of the traditional two - but with each poster putting in predictions for pole time and race win etc. in the same post? It would just cut down on editing/analysis time.....

That would be fine with me Ayse .....

I went back to 2005 to see how we should be formatting the data:

Tables!

User|Team|Number|Time
Aysedasi| Audi Sport UK Team Veloqx |#8| 3m31.42
Truckosaurus| Zytek |#22| 3m32.000

Let's define the columns we need:

User|Pole Winner #|Pole Time| Race Winner #|Laps|Race 2nd|Race 3rd

I suggest we forego any but the most basic descriptors of the cars (for instance, not "Audi Sport North America R10", just "Audi R10" or ASNA only) if we do it at all. What's the forum preference, team name or chassis/engine? Ideally we should limit it to 10 characters or less, otherwise it might not work well in the browser window.

Great idea! We should stick with tradition after all. This is Le Mans.

As for car descriptor, I say keep it simple. #1 Audi, #16 Pescarolo, or #63 Corvette.

I go with just the car number - so much easier and we can always reproduce the numbers at the beginning of the thread, just in case.

Hmmmmmm........

Well, if the person you have in mind can't do it, I guess I might be prepared to give it a go........Thank you, Ayse! :) :unworthy:

Somehow, it just wouldn't be the same without you running it! :wine:

No worries - I'm actually rather flattered to be asked...... (Saves me going walkabout again...... ;))

I'll try and find some time to set it up tthis evening or tomorrow. Out to hockey in a minute.

what's the deadline for the competion?

Good question Speed-King. We've debated this before and my search of past threads hasn't helped. If we leave it open until just before final qually, will anyone bother to guess until after the Test Day?

Thanks for setting up the thread, Ayse! :beer:

I'd concur with the suggestion that not many (if any) will post their predictions until after the Test Day (those who take a more scientific approach will surely want to see how the 'new' Tertre Rouge will affect lap times), but the main thing was to have the thread in place together with the rules of the competition. I like the idea of combining the competition into one thread, good move! :)

In that case, I think we ought to go with that flow? Leave the competition open until, say, midnight on Tuesday night of race week? Of course if anyone does want to post their effort now, they understand that they wouldn't be allowed to go back and ask to change their prediction later...... ;)

Yes, Tuesday night would make sense.

Which midnight, though? :)

Darn. I can't get used to the fact that I can no longer go back and amend things. I wonder if a modmight kindly write the closing time into the thread itself plus the 'no second goes' warning?

Thanks

Darn. I can't get used to the fact that I can no longer go back and amend things. I wonder if a modmight kindly write the closing time into the thread itself plus the 'no second goes' warning?

ThanksIt's equally strange for us not having you as a mod! ;)

Before I amend your thread, may I suggest that midnight 'local time' (11pm in the UK) would be the most appropriate midnight to use (in answer to Paul's question ;))? We will also need a mod to volunteer to lock the thread. Mrs Bentley03 will insist I'm tucked up in bed by then (like all good children :) ) since I shall be leaving the house and heading for Le Mans at around 04:30 on the Wednesday morning.

Hard to police local time, though, James, so I'll suggest instead 9pm EDT Tuesday (3am in France, 2am in UK, 8pm in Indianapolis ;) ) and either Tim or I will lock it.

Hazard
Audi Sport North America #2
4:11.784


Expecting a Monsoon?

Expecting a Monsoon?This escaped the 'delete' button because it made me laugh out loud (brilliant, Fogelhund!) so I've moved it from the competition thread.......it's what Ayse would term 'surplusage'.

Perhaps anyone tempted to post 'surplusage' in the competition thread could post their comments here in future? Thanks.......:)

I wonder if a modmight kindly write the closing time into the thread itself plus the 'no second goes' warning?

ThanksHousekeeping duties duly completed.

Perhaps anyone tempted to post 'surplusage' in the competition thread could post their comments here in future? Thanks.......:)

Good idea - its always very tempting - like I was inclined to congratulate Hazard for getting the ball rolling but (obviously) realised I couldn't........ ;)

Ta for that - can I fix my pole time, I copied the wrong thing... :bag:

Hazard
Audi Sport North America #2
3:24.711
Audi Sport North America #1
372 Laps
Pescarolo Judd #16
Team Total Peugeot #7

Ta for that - can I fix my pole time, I copied the wrong thing... :bag:

Hazard
Audi Sport North America #2
3:24.711
Audi Sport North America #1
372 Laps
Pescarolo Judd #16
Team Total Peugeot #7Done!

Ta for that - can I fix my pole time, I copied the wrong thing... :bag:

Hazard
Audi Sport North America #2
3:24.711
Audi Sport North America #1
372 Laps
Pescarolo Judd #16
Team Total Peugeot #7

Almost 6 secs quicker than last year ..... now that might shock Pug , just a little mate !!!

Almost 6 secs quicker than last year ..... now that might shock Pug , just a little mate !!!
Well, let's see.......Wednesday qualifying was a wash out last year so Thursday was clearly a day to work on race set up. Audi qualified on race rubber, failed to find a clear (traffic-free) lap and with the boost allegedly turned down. They knew they had the measure of the Pesca's so did just enough. Now, Nishy on a mission with qualifying rubber and full boost would have taken what, 2-3 seconds off that time? The remodelled Tertre Rouge I estimate will reduce laptimes by another second. A further 12 months of development for the R10's and a new diesel adversary who I believe will be aiming to occupy at least one place on the front row of the grid, and who knows?

It's unlikely, I agree, but in perfect qualifying conditions, perhaps not beyond the realms of possibility.........?

I'm waiting for driver line-ups to be announced before I put in my predictions, but my pole prediction car will not be wearing the numbers 1, 2 or 3. ;)

Hmmm. Useful musiung there. Who am I to argue. (Still think that's a bit quick though ;)).

It would be nice to think there will be a really serious shoot-out for pole between Audi and Peugeot. Surely Peugeot would give M. Bibendum's right arm to put one over Audi in qualifying?

dj choc ice - you have the #1 Audi finishing in first and second places - I know they're good, but not that good!

the well known copy/paste syndrome...

Canam

Peugeot 908 #7
3:25.115
Audi Sport NA #1
293 laps
Audi Sport NA #2
Peugeot 908 #8
canam is suggesting we have rain, I note.

It's equally strange for us not having you as a mod! ;) It is bad and wrong. :(

canam is suggesting we have rain, I note.

I thought there was ban on anyone even mentioning that topic? :laugh::laugh:

I thought there was ban on anyone even mentioning that topic? :laugh::laugh:


I'm not a stick-wielder any more otherwise it would have been done!!

yes, I suffered from a fat-finger problem. I am looking for a race winning 393 number of laps...but I guess everyone probably knew that already.

I don't know how to correct it (if I can). I had to re-edit it three times when I put in my numbers originally!!.

Don't ask me to be a copy typist.

I'm sure one of the mods will do the honours for you..... ;)

thanks.

I'm sure one of the mods will do the honours for you..... ;)
Done! :)

We just need dj to read this thread now and TELL US HOW TO CORRECT YOUR ENTRY!

Well, I think everyone is being very boring..... Far to many Audi mentions for my liking....... ;)

I see SebringMG is masquerading as The Badger now......


Another cut and paste victim, methinks...... ;)

I would be interested in getting readings of what people think will be the gap between the winning diesel:p and the highest placed petrol-engined car. I would put it at 17 laps. Are there any bookies making a spread?

I think the gap will largely depend upon how long the peugeots last and keep ressing the Audis!! Once the pug challenge dies the audis will back right off.

Reckon on 7 laps!!

Any GT1 predictions? I dont think the vettes can hold on to another victory if all the competition survives the race....it seems like their last few have been the result of the attrition rate from others....or am i alone on this one? :-/

Any GT1 predictions? I dont think the vettes can hold on to another victory if all the competition survives the race....it seems like their last few have been the result of the attrition rate from others....or am i alone on this one? :-/Welcome to 10 Tenths, Prodriveman! :beer:

Well, personally speaking I'll be rooting for an Oreca win, but my gut feeling is that it'll be another Corvette victory. I assume you'll be cheering on the Aston Martin's yourself........;)

You guys are very "doom and gloom" about an Audi whitewash. Last year's winning margin was 4 laps, and if they had this year's fuel tank size it would have been 1.2 laps. Yes, there has been additional development, but 17 laps? Come on... Throw in Peugeot pushing hard early, and I think Audi won't have it quite so easy.

You guys are very "doom and gloom" about an Audi whitewash. Last year's winning margin was 4 laps, and if they had this year's fuel tank size it would have been 1.2 laps.A loss of over 10 minutes for extra pits stops? Surely not?

For me, I'd like to see two of the Audi's expire in a vast cloud of smoke and steam in the first 5 laps. And the other could be delayed for 3-4 laps. Now that would make things a bit more interesting......

(Actually, I'm just completely mesmerised by Adam's new avatar..... ;))

I'm amazed that so many are eager to put their numbers in, so soon. I know I'm going to wait until after the test day to see if anything is given away, first.

Some data to ponder, though:

1993: 375 laps = 5100.000 km for the Peugeot 905
1999: 366 laps = 4982.974 km (BMW)
2000: 368 laps = 5007.988 km
2001: rain
2002: 375 laps = 5118.750 km <-- new "post-Mulsanne chicane" record - FSI introduction
2003: 377 laps = 5146.050 km <-- new "post-Mulsanne chicane" record for Bentley - top Audi did 372 laps, so a bit of a slip
2004: 379 laps = 5173.350 km <-- new "post-Mulsanne chicane" record
2005: 369 laps = 5036.850 km
2006: 380 laps = 5187.000 km <-- new "post-Mulsanne chicane" record, first time out for the R10

for reference:

1988: 394 laps = 5332.970 km ("post-Porsche curves" record) <= 391 laps of current configuration
1971: 396 laps = 5335.313 km (overall record) <= 391 laps

So, Peugeot has a few targets to aim for, as do Audi. First, Peugeot's own record of 5100 km, which translates into 374 laps in today's current configuration. Audi already has surpassed that. Second, the overall post-chicane record, which this year will require 381 laps. Again, that's to claim the mark currently held by Audi. And, third, the overall distance record, which would require 391 laps... (edit: due to change in circuit length to 13.629 km, it's actually 392)

Can Audi up their pace (or Peugeot set theirs) to get 11 (12) more laps than last year? That would require, assuming 45 minutes in the pits, a race pace of 3:34 (3:33.5). Doable over 24 hours?

Can Audi up their pace (or Peugeot set theirs) to get 11 more laps than last year? That would require, assuming 45 minutes in the pits, a race pace of 3:34. Doable over 24 hours?


Some interesting musing there Paul.

My short answer is I doubt it.

In fact, I doubt it very much - unless they really have to. In which case it needs Peugeot to have the speed and reliability to race them hard all the way. Man, I'd love to see it, but I won't be holding my breath..... ;)

I think that the race pace of the diesel class will be faster than the qualifying pace of petrol class. The writing is already on the wall with what we have seen this year with the Pug. Pescarolo is right. I wonder how many other team owners have supported him?

Yes, I think it's a real stretch to get that kind of pace over 24 hours - but, until Audi came along, I'd have thought it was a stretch to spend less than 1h in the pits. (Bentley, IIRC, was under 36 minutes with their Audi-trained crew in 2003. And while the cars were not interchangeable, the expertise was.)

I think that the race pace of the diesel class will be faster than the qualifying pace of petrol class. The writing is already on the wall with what we have seen this year with the Pug. Pescarolo is right. I wonder how many other team owners have supported him?

No surprise. Prior to the R10, the R8's were able to out pace the atmo. cars quite easily. Le Mans has favored the turbos for quite some time.

Yes, I think it's a real stretch to get that kind of pace over 24 hours - but, until Audi came along, I'd have thought it was a stretch to spend less than 1h in the pits. (Bentley, IIRC, was under 36 minutes with their Audi-trained crew in 2003. And while the cars were not interchangeable, the expertise was.)

How much is the smaller fuel cell going to cost them in pit time?


By Aysedasi
(Actually, I'm just completely mesmerised by Adam's new avatar..... ;))


Somewhat FLOYDish (Darkside)

L.P. :cool:

No surprise. Prior to the R10, the R8's were able to out pace the atmo. cars quite easily. Le Mans has favored the turbos for quite some time.

Does that translate into 'Le Mans has favored torque for quite some time?' as that seems to be the part of performance equalisation that is the most difficult to effect.

Interesting test day results.

Edited to add weather outlook here (http://wwwa.accuweather.com/world-forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&locCode=EUR|FR|FR018|LE%20MANS&metric=1).

Wednesday/Thursday might not be as quick as anticipated. The weather currently does not look hot for the race, though, which would play into any real distance runs.

Interesting test day results.


Yes , but imagine how interesting they would be if the petrol engines were allowed to be on par with the oil burners!

Diesel performance thread: http://www.ten-tenths.com/forum/showthread.php?t=96980

Mmm, interesting 'Pole Prediction' from Mr.Collins.......

paul-collins
Peugeot #8
3:38.420

.......someone been studying the weather forecast a little too closely! ;)

Busted!

I find it hard to believe that all four sessions will be wet. These summer rain systems usually pass through quickly enough that if one day is wet, the next will be dry or vice versa. A bold prediction from Mr. Collins however.....

niel, I don't believe the whole time will be pouring - but I think it will be tricky to get a true qualifying lap. Note that I'm only 14 seconds off the fastest time predicted, so it will be a tentative lap but not a full rain lap...

Hi - one for the mods -

My entry for 'my' predictions thread was lost in the corruption mullarky. As I think were some others. (I know there was at least one other after me). Is there any way of retrieving this data, or do we have to start again?

Unfortunately, not that I'm aware of. :(

so you get that second chance ...
anyway, you still can't put a Debora on the top of the list ;)

Oh phooey.........

and BTW mine disappeared too !
gee! need to remember what I wrote the first time

Nice pick Bernard B. German cleen sweep.

Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi. I think....... ;)

to be honest, this is not what I WANT, but as Ayse has banned (to speak of) the rain for this year (and all the other I assume), I had no other choice ...

To be honest of course Bernard, I never actually had that kind of power to wield - even when I was a mod! I just think we should think (and predict) imaginatively. After all, there are people out there who think Deboras and WRs are beautiful - now that's a perfect example of imaginative thinking.....

I know what they should do really. They should have an Audi one-make series to support the 24 Hours. Then the Audis could have a clean sweep as usual and leave the main event to the more interesting and better-looking cars...... :)

I hope noone picked the Zytek.

If they did, I'm sure the mods will allow them to adjust their prediction.

Are we going to have an update on the predictions so far?

Saleen picked the Zytek to come in 3rd. :third:

I hope noone picked the Zytek.

Saleen S7R (http://www.ten-tenths.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1915682&postcount=10) picked the Zytek and Doc Hollywood (http://www.ten-tenths.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1918499&postcount=13)has #3 Audi finishing first and third.

Rollcentre (7 picks) is the most popular P1P choice to finish on the podium, followed closely by #16 Pesca (6 picks). :)

..... (http://www.ten-tenths.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1915682&postcount=10)and Doc Hollywood (http://www.ten-tenths.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1918499&postcount=13)has #3 Audi finishing first and third.

:)


Now that really is Audi pushing the boat out........ :rofl:

"Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi, Audi,...", and the GT1 just behind, you will see !

Easy now Pascal, you're making me depressed...... ;)

GT1 right behind, yes.
but 3rd Pascal ? Wow, that's a courageous prediction

Especially with 5 diesels and 2 Pescarolos in the race.

Tim Northcutt Peugeot #8 3:26.203

Good Job Tim!

It aint over yet!

L.P. :cool:

No, it aint over until the fat lady......... get's drowned in tonight's deluge....... Let's get the wet stuff out of the way before Saturday ;)

Thanks!

jhansen also had a great pick for the Pole, but was less than a tenth faster than me...3.26.115

Boy, did I ever pray for rain on Thursday night!!!

So, I'm not sure how an overall winner is picked here.

Tim Northcutt was the closest on the pole, and picked the 2nd place finisher.

Splendid Cat picked the winner, with the closest laps Audi #1 368 laps, vs. real of 369 laps.

Nobody picked a podium of 1, 8, 16.

jhansen picked the pole sitter, winner and second place finisher....

In the past, the Pole Competition was its on thread and the race competition was its on thread.

I don't know what criteria is used for this...

I do know that the way I've done this in the IRL Forum is that a direct correct pick in a finishing place or being closest to a speed counts for 2 pts. each.

But if you select a car in the top 3, but it was in an incorrect place, you would get 1 pt for that pick.

If there is a method to this, I'm sure that a winner will emerge.

method shmethod. I think the winner is based on the car, with tie breaking done by time/distance, then second, then third place. Perhaps next year we'll use some sort of podium points calculation and then laps as a tie breaker?