Quote:
Originally Posted by gwyllion
A quick comparison of the long runs in practice 2: - Audi #1 (Fassler): 29 laps, 1:28.958 average lap time
- Toyota #7 (Nakajima): 33 laps, 1:29.148 average lap time
That does not look good for Audi at the moment. 0.2 sec per lap is not enough to make up for the extra pitstop. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwyllion
It is irrelevant that Audi is faster over a single lap. This only gets them another pole position. Consistency over a complete stint and the ability to double stint the tyres are far more important for the race.
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I am looking at the
Chronological Analysis of FP2 and note that the #1 Audi did a 29-lap stint at the beginning of FP2 (laps 1-29). In Austin, on a track measuring 5.513 km, the Audis were able to do 24-lap / 25-lap stints. On the shorter Fuji track (4.563) I therefore expect the Audis to be able to do 29-lap / 30 lap stints. Assuming normal race conditions (no rain, no SC), we can assume that the race will take 230-240 laps to be completed. That would require 7, possibly 8 pit stops for the Audis.
The Toyota #7 apparently managed to do a 33-lap stint during FP2 (laps 9-41) which is pretty impressive compared to what the #8 was able to do at Austin (i.e. between 25 and 27 laps on a single tank of fuel). That could possibly allow the Toyotas do stop only 6 times, at most 7 times.
It's seem reasonable to expect that the Toyotas will manage to stop one time less than the Audis, "costing" the Audis something like 1min20sec to 1min30sec. A 0.2sec/lap advantage over the Toyotas will indeed not be sufficient for Audi, even if they double-stint their tires.
This race is going to be interesting.