A bit more info. Drivers sorted by average grid positions (first 5 GPs). Also included are number of times in Q3 and number of times "trapped" in Q1.
Code:
AvGP Q3 Q1
VET 1.2 5
HAM 2.8 5
BUT 4.2 5
ALO 4.8 5
WEB 5.4 4 1
ROS 6.0 5
PET 7.4 5
MAS 7.8 5
MSC 10.8 2
BUE 11.6 2
ALG 12.4 1
DIR 13.0 1
PER 13.6
KOB* 14.0 2 1
HEI* 14.6 2 2
MAL 14.6 1 1
SUT 14.6
BAR 15.4 1
KOV 18.0 4
TRU 19.4 5
GLO 21.0 5
DAM 22.0 5
LIU 22.0 5
KAR 23.4 5
Three main groups, one "freaky" group and two "floating" ones can be seen in terms of qualifying segments:
- Drivers naturally in Q3 (8 drivers):
Red Bulls, Macs, Ferraris, Rosberg and Petrov.
- Drivers naturally in Q1 (6 drivers):
Hispanias, Virgins and Lotuses.
- Drivers "middle zone", usually "trapped" in Q2 (7 drivers):
Forces, Perez, Alguersuari, Maldonado
- Drivers type "erratic middle zone", not usually in any segment (Q1, Q2, Q3) because of erratic performances:
Kobayashi, Heidfeld.
- Drivers floating between Q3 and Q2 (drivers most probable to be in Q3 among those usually out of Q3):
Schumacher and Buemi are 9th and 10th on average grid performance, but they usually don't get Q3.
- Driver flotaing between Q1 and Q2 (driver not usually trapped in Q1 but first candidate to be one of them):
Barrichello is 18th in average performance but usually he is not trapped in Q1.
Monaco's qualifying is a bit particular but as a sort of general "guide" to qualifying (as things stand so far) we can say:
In the first segment Q1 Hispanias, Virgins and Lotuses are massively favorites to fail. The 7th driver to fail is probable to be a Williams or perhaps Sutil.
In the second segment the drivers called to be promoted to Q3 are very likely the 8 drivers from Red Bulls, Macs, Ferraris, Rosberg and Petrov. The two remaining drivers probably will be Schumacher and Buemi (and keeping an eye on the "surprising" Heidfeld).
That is the "general expected schedule". Of course brilliant individual performances or poor ones make interesting changes over it. Naturally the old random event here and there also plays a role.