If you really want to know what's going on in Montreal, you have to read the francophone press. It often covers stories that the anglophone press either isn't aware of or doesn't care much about.
So seeking a definitive explanation of why the 2017 Canadian GP is listed as "provisional" on the calendar, I dug up a few articles in the Journal de Montreal. This one is by columnist Réjean Tremblay, who is somone who usually knows the real story behind the news.
Coderre veut-il la peau de Dumontier?
Réjean Tremblay
Jeudi, 27 octobre 2016
La situation du Grand Prix du Canada est devenue un incroyable micmac. La seule certitude dans le dossier, c’est que B’wana Be’nie célébrera ses 86 ans Ã* minuit et une ce soir. Et Lance Stroll ses 18 ans samedi.
I don't have time to do a full translation, but here are the key points of the article:
There is an incredible political intrigue that currently surrounds the GP.
Montreal mayor Denis Coderre (who is somewhat popular in Montreal but is also a real blowhard) wants to remove François Dumontier from the position of promoter of the race (Dumontier has been in charge of the race for about 10 years).
Coderre wants to install the well known event promotion/ticketing company known as
evenko as the race promoter. The reason that Coderre wants a new promoter is not clear but there appears to be some personal animosity between Coderre and Dumontier.
Bernie and Dumontier have agreed in principle to sign a new 15-year contract for the race. The contract stipulates that Dumontier will be the promoter of the race. Coderre has refused to sign the contract.
The mayor needs to sign because the city of Montreal provides part of the government subsidy for the race. The city is also responsible for funding the cost of the proposed renovations to the track facilities (paddocks, med. facility & race control tower).
Coderre has publicly insisted that the 2017 race will take place. The mayor says that he is in regular contact with Bernie. However the mayor has not spoken with Dumontier since June 2015.
The city of Montreal has not fulfilled its obligation under the current contract (signed in 2014) to begin the renovations of the track right after the end of the 2016 race. The estimated cost of the renovations was originally about $32M. Now it's up to $50M...and counting.
Coderre has tried to blame Dumontier for the increase in the estimated cost, but the real reason seems to be requirements of the FIA and city regulations.
Dumontier has his own problems. He has delayed payments to some event service and supply firms by a period of several months and then made some payments only with help from Bernie.
While the future of the F1 race remained in doubt, the mayor rushed into a deal with Formula E starting next summer (to be contested on city streets and not at the Circuit GV). Of course the mayor singed evenko as the promoter for Formula E.
Dumontier is counting on Bernie [note to Dumontier; don't trust Bernie] and the new owners of F1 to support him in this conflict. Dumontier was in Austin and he returned feeling reassured that he has their support as promoter.
The columnist mentions a couple former Montreal F1 promoters who got screwed by Bernie, including Normand Legault, Dumontier's predecessor as promoter.
Time is running out and there needs to be a compromise between Coderre and Dumontier. Coderre needs to sign the amended contract. The FIA meets Nov. 30 to finalize the 2017 schedule.