Well, if Honda want Castroneves, it's not at KV.
Here's a bit of a team-by-team from things I have heard. I'm not the best-connected by any means (I think I've heard correctly about two things in the past year
- Wheldon to BHA and Matos to AFS), and don't pretend to be an expert, so do know that if you haven't heard it being confirmed, it most likely hasn't been. A lot of rumor at this point. Just going in numerical order by 2011 numbers for ease.
Newman/Haas Racing
Engine: Believed to be the Lotus anchor team, with Lotus even buying into the team. They're allegedly desperate enough for a more secure future financially that they are willing to risk a less competitive engine...or one that may not exist. Not sure how you find security in a cloud of doubt, but that's their call.
Drivers: Oriol ServiÃ* and James Hinchcliffe are both believed to be retained. Telemundo is staying with ServiÃ*. Hinchcliffe's money may or may not return, but everyone says he will. Lotus did say they would run Jean Alesi in the 2012 Indy 500; I'd assume (notice this is speculation) the anchor team would be that team, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Plans change.
Team Penske
Engine: Chevrolet
Drivers: Will Power is back with Verizon. Beyond that, nothing else is set for the team. They will definitely have two cars, according to Tim Cindric, but three is their goal. There was talk they would have a satellite team like Ganassi and run two cars on each operation (HVM believed to be the second team), but that's gone somewhat quiet, especially with Chevrolet filling out their lineup of engines. Hélio Castroneves' further legal troubles leave him in some doubt; he himself confirmed he was talking to other teams, and Honda are keen to find more aces with Kanaan lost to Chevrolet and Wheldon potentially in a bowtie-clad Andretti.
Panther Racing
Engine: Believed to be Chevrolet.
Drivers: J.R. Hildebrand is confirmed as returning. I'm pretty sure National Guard were confirmed as well, but not 100% confident in my memory. Single-car operation.
KV Racing Technology
Engine: Chevrolet, confirmed today.
Drivers: Tony Kanaan has been retained. They are close to a deal with Takuma Sato. E.J. Viso would run the third car if there is a third car; they depends on Chevrolet's 10-car supply limit and the renewing of Viso's PDVSA finances.
Andretti Autosport
Engine: Expected to be announced soon as Chevrolet.
Drivers: Marco Andretti will be in the RC Cola car next year (Dr. Pepper/Snapple are the parent, just using a different brand). GoDaddy.com will sponsor a car for 2012 and 2013; Dan Wheldon is a leading candidate to be in that car, but his ties to Honda may hurt his availability. Michael Andretti said there will be 2-4 cars. Ryan Hunter-Reay will be back if they have sponsorship for him. Mike Conway's ride could go to a higher bidder if one is found (Conway brought just $1,000,000 this year).
Dragon Racing
Engine: Honestly haven't heard anything about this.
Drivers: I don't know if they'll even be full-time. There's been so much talk about their changing 2011 plans to even begin to wonder about 2012.
Chip Ganassi Racing
Engine: Honda
Drivers: All four are coming back, and all four are keeping the same sponsors. Chip said so himself.
A.J. Foyt Enterprises
Engine: Honda
Drivers: Vitor Meira will be back in the 14 ABC Supply car. They want to run a second car, but I don't know how close to reality that actually is. Every team would run more if all the ifs aligned...
Sam Schmidt Motorsports
Engine: Honda
Drivers: Simon Pagenaud apparently has a deal finalized with SSM to either be in the 17 or 77, particularly due to his support from Honda. The second car is being held for Josef Newgarden if he can get the funding together, which he seems very optimistic about. To add a small comment, a Pagenaud/Newgarden lineup is
really exciting to me.
Dale Coyne Racing
Engine: They want Honda or Chevrolet. There's probably more space at the former with KV going Chevrolet, so we'll see...they may still get stuck with Lotus based on reputation alone.
Drivers: Sébastien Bourdais wants to be full-time with Coyne. Damn good record on ovals, even in IROC against the NASCAR boys. Not sure I've heard much about their second car; they may be trying to keep their team down-sized with the new car coming, and hoping that they can convince an engine supplier if they're taking up less slots (i.e. more apt to give up one of the precious ten to Bourdais if they don't have to give up another to the Jakes car).
Dreyer & Reinbold Racing
Engine: No talk there. Potentially a Lotus candidate.
Drivers: Funding will play a role. Pantano obviously impressed, and if Wilson takes his money elsewhere (no clue where), you would think he'd be considered. Beatriz should be solid with her Ipiranga backing. I expect a lot of the D&RR stuff will be confirmed later in the game.
RLL Racing
Engine: They'll be part-time as far as Rahal's comments suggest, so we'll have to wait for the full-time teams to get their engine contracts sorted first.
Drivers: They still like Baguette. Depends on money.
Conquest Racing
Engine: Lotus leftovers seem to be the only possibility, assuming they're on the grid.
Drivers: They'll need someone with the funding. Could be Saavedra, could be someone else, could be a rotation of many...
Sarah Fisher Racing
Engine: Expected to announce Honda soon, though I'm not sure if that means they're going full-time or not (I'd be surprised if they did).
Drivers: Ed's had a tough go this year, but he is well-loved by the team, so no reason to end the relationship when they have a chance to be more competitive with the new car. He's certainly one hell of an oval racer. All signs point to him returning.
HVM Racing
Engine: Had been linked to Chevrolet as a Penske satellite team, but this seems less likely now. Could end up Lotus.
Drivers: Simona de Silvestro and Entergy have a contract, and the team confirmed they're getting ready for 2012 with her. They mentioned a second car, too, but this seemed connected to the Penske satellite rumors (i.e. Penske would spin off Briscoe or Castroneves to the team). Without that, I don't see where a second car comes from.
Bryan Herta Autosport
Engine: Would be Honda, if they're there.
Drivers: You'd hope for Wheldon, but he's been linked to a lot of teams elsewhere. Would be a huge shame if BHA, Wheldon, William Rast, CURB, Honda, etc. couldn't be together for a full program. I don't know how you couldn't feel so good for those guys at Indy. Sadly, I don't hear much about them...
Others
Alex Tagliani has Bowers & Wilkins next year, but how much money that really is, and where he'll take it if SSM truly are headed in the Pagenaud/Newgarden direction, I have no idea. Been quiet on that front other than confirmed he had the money, but not a deal at SSM.
Talk about Michael Shank/GAINSCO/Wayne Taylor from Grand-Am. We'll see. Also talk that Jensen MotorSport wanted to buy a 2012 car. And then some that Davey Hamilton would have his own team in some capacity. Highcroft still mentioned, too, but they seem preoccupied. China Racing say they have the budget and all that for next year, and I'm fairly confident they are indeed Greg Beck's team. I guess the Chinese round will help them get it on-track, but still not convinced. Driver-wise, they have mentioned "PJ Jones is a very good driver" through Twitter but I'd laugh quite loudly if they went with him. Cool guy and one of my favorites but would be a seriously WTF moment. I don't know what we'll get in terms of new teams, but interest
is there.
Probably some usual suspects at Indy etc. Still cloudy where 33 engine programs come from but I guess they can get enough guys on the short program. Hell, worked for Wheldon this year...