Stat: the win prone factor in FIM GPs

[Schummy]

In our little game about FIM GPs, people guesses who will win the races.

Apparently there are riders who are especially prone to win (or crash, or be irregular, whatever) and perhaps there are others who being more consistent are less likely to win races. Obviously there riders who have it all being consistent and winning (Valentino!, Pedrosa).

I have tried to capture this "factor" doing some little calculations with GP classifications so far.

My procedure is as follows. The more "winning" rider is, very naturally, who won more races so far. Then I drop him of the races and his wins, thus, are inherited by who ended behind him. Now, I find again who has more wins, and he will be the second more "winning" rider. I drop him and the process go on and on.

Subjectively, this procedure brings a list of riders who I find are really likely winners, in my very particular opinion.

This list is after Donington.

MotoGP:
Rossi
Gibernau
Melandri
Barros
Hayden

It's interesting that Gibernau had no wins so far and he is only 5th in the WC and, however, he is second in the list.

Melandri has not wins neither but is above Barros and Hayden. Frankly speaking, I'm more inclined to expect a win by Giber or Melandri than by Barros or Hayden (although those two are likely too, in their days).

250cc:
Pedrosa
Stoner
Dovi
Puniet
Porto

Dovi (no wins) is above Puniet and Porto (1 win each) and I find this situation ok with my view about future races. Again, it is just my subjective view!

125cc:
Pasini (untied with Talmacsi using 2nds, etc)
Talmacsi
Simoncelli
Kallio
Luthi

Nothing surprising here.