2004 championship result predictions

[crozier74]

With the grid now nearly complete, and the first few testing sessions over with, what do you think the order will be at the end of the 2004 championships for drivers and constructors? Maybe it's a bit too early, but if it is we could at least come back to this thread later. Here's my guesses, what are your's?

Drivers

1 Kimi Raikkonen
beats Schumi by about 15-20 points; consistent spread of 6 wins throughout season
2 Michael Schumacher
goes into retirement at end of season, feeling his reign as the world's best driver is over; 4 wins
3 David Coulthard
out to prove a point to McLaren; 2 wins
4 Ralf Schumacher
consistent points/podium finisher; 1 win
5 Juan Pablo Montoya
doesn't get backing from Williams that Schumi Jr gets, but still tries his best, entertaining as ever; 2 wins
6 Rubens Barrichello
consistent points scorer but also has has bad luck and doesn't win; best 2nd
7 Fernando Alonso
several podium places and 1-2 poles; 1 win
8 Jarno Trulli
emotional maiden win in a chaotic mid-season race; 1 win
9 Giancarlo Fisichella
multiple 5ths and a lucky 2nd behind Trulli; best 2nd
10 Jenson Button
finally gets podium alongside Trulli & Fisichella; best 3rd
11 Mark Webber
multiple points finishes; best 4th
12 Felipe Massa
more consistent and mature; best 5th
13 Cristiano da Matta
strong qualifying and races; best 4th
14 Takuma Sato
consistent midfield runner; best 6th
15 Nick Heidfeld
couple of points; strong runs as equipment improves mid-season; best 6th
16 Olivier Panis
not up to standards of da Matta; best 7th
17 Christian Klien
[i]2-3 points scoring races, several strong races just outside, impressive rookie; best 7th[i]
18 Jos Verstappen
poor luck leads to frustration in mid-season, but points in 1-2 races; best 8th
19 Gianmaria Bruni
1 strong qualifying run nets surprise 14th, but is hampered by poor equipment, drives through field to take points in early season race; best 8th
20 Heikki Kovalainen
consistent, but struggles with poor car, points in chaotic race; best 7th

Constructors

1 McLaren Mercedes
champ Raikkonen, pumped-up Coulthard and quick-reliable car make dominant combination; 8 wins
2 Ferrari
Schumi's wins cancel out Barrichello's misfortune; 4 wins
3 Williams BMW
consistent frontrunner; 2 wins
4 Renault
strong, but a couple of mishaps cost points; 2 wins
5 Sauber Petronas
Ferrari backing, new wind tunnel and strong driver line-up moves team forward to battle with Toyota & BAR for best-of-rest title; best 2nd
6 BAR Honda
solid car and consistently fighting way into top 10 in tough/close midfield; best 3rd
7 Toyota
Mike Gascoyne car moves team forward; best 5th
8 Jaguar Ford
car remains good, but midfield opposition is improving faster; best 4th
9 Jordan Mercedes
Mercedes and Heidfeld help team move forward, but not quite far enough to conistently get to front of midfield battle; best 6th
10 Minardi Cosworth
talented driver pairing hampered by poor equipment and ever-tightening budget; best 7th

[Snrub]

You obviously put a fair bit of effort making the list up.

I tend to agree with one thing, the order will not change that much because things are too competitive in the last couple of years.

I disagree with the following (no particular order of importance):
1. Sauber. I don't think they'll improve substantially if at all. It's tough competing against the big boys.
2. DC. What does he have to prove? He had something to prove say 4 years ago, but today we know what to expect.
3. I don't see McLaren doing as well as you've predicted. The point gap is also too large and I don't think Kimi is better than MS. I suppose there is some possiblity of your prediction because the last couple years we've seen evidence of MS's motivation dying down.

[Mark Webber]

I like threads like this but I'll wait till all drivers are locked in

[Adam43]

Do you think that the signings for Jordan, Jaguar and Minardi are going to make that much difference. With the possible exception of the Jaguar Racing driver they will prop up the bottom of the championship whoever they are!

[Armco Bender]

DC will win by miles,is going to be his year for sure in 2004.

[Redblurr]

I'm with Mark Webber on this wait till drivers are in place. However, if Bridgestone get a dry tyre to match Michellin - Schumi all the way - reason, he has nothing to prove and will enjoy his racing and romp home - hope so anyway

[Mark Webber]

the Jag can win races even if not IT CAN grab quite a few podiums with MW

[BootsOntheSide]

I think Williams will give full support to Montoya, especially if he has a good start.

Expectign Jaguar to challenge for wins on anything resembling merit is ludicrously optimistic, considering that the team's underfnded, lacks topline design talent and will have a second driver who'll be little help.

I also think 5th is over-optimisitc for Sauber. Now that BAR are on what look set to be the right tyres, they will be hard to match. Button and Sato is about as good a lineup as Fisichella and Massa, and I doubt Sauber's new wind-tunnel is much better than BAR's facilities. BAR have much more money to invest, a better design team, and Honda have much to prove.

[Mark Webber]

the only thing Jag may suffer is a weak 2nd thats it Boots.

Bar will struggle with a weakend driver lineup and Honda powerplants but tyre will save them

[Dani Filth]

i do see Sauber back in 5th .. and off ocurse Ferrari still number one in both championships

[RWC]

Good list croz.
I too don't want to bag your choices too much as you obviously have put alot of effort into it.
You're wrong about ferrari though
Um,well-i hope you're RIGHT about ferrari but i don't see it happening.

Oh and sauber won't be beating toyota either.Kind of hope i'm wrong about that too.

Lastly..there is no way in the know universe that coulthard will be 'pumped up'
He's as pumped as he'll ever get and will only win out of shear luck ,not merit,just as has been the case for the last couple of years

[paulzinho]

After last season I can honestly say......





















That I haven't got a clue whats gonna happen this year!

[RWC]

Oops
I meant sauber won't beat toyota OR Bar

[ralf fan]

well i hope for FISCO's sake that Sauber are competing for pts.

[Knowlesy]

My predictions for the 15 confirmed drivers and teams:

Schuey M - Second in championship and retires with 73 career wins.
Barrichello - One lucky win and bye bye ferrari.
Monty - The new champion with 6 wins.
Schuey R - Starts well but doesn't bother with the second half of season. Again.
Kimi - Unreliable early season McLaren hampers challenge but strong late season run of 4 wins on the trot and 3rd in the title.
DC - Respectable season, but loses seat for 2005.
Alonso - No wins or poles in a trying season. Plenty of podiums though.
Trulli - One flukey win. Don't ask how.
Button - Superb season, destroys Sato and is off to Williams for 2005.
Sato - Trashes several chassis but shows speed and promise. Gets a podium.
Fisi - A solid and unspectacular year in the anonymous Sauber. Ferrari for 2005.
Massa - A scrappy year.
Webber- Superb again. Off to Ferrari.
da Matta - Builds on first season nicely.
Panis - Reliable as ever.

Ferrari - Good car but outclassed by Williams and McLaren on sheer pace.
Williams - Quick car propels them to title success.
McLaren - The fastest machine but also unreliable early on.
Renault - Good chassis early on, but development slows down and engine proves unreliable and down on power initially.
BAR - A great year, leapfrog Renault for fourth.
Sauber - An average year. 2001 seems a while ago now.
Jaguar - Don't move forward or backward compared to 2003.
Toyota - Surprise everyone by wheeling out a car very similar to FW25.(joke) Off track matters cause unrest. (not a joke)
Jordan - Slide closer to extinction with rubbish pay drivers and donkey of a car.
Minardi - Nicolas Kiesa leads the team to a massive points haul of 0.

[Snrub]

Originally posted by Armco Bender
DC will win by miles,is going to be his year for sure in 2004.

LOL!!

[BSchneiderFan]

Drivers

1. M. Schumacher
2. Raikkonen
3. Barrichello

Constructors

1. Scuderia Ferrari
2. McLaren-Mercedes-Benz
3. Williams-BMW

[BootsOntheSide]

Mark, why are you so blind to the facts regardng Jaguar? Can you name me one person in the team other than Mark who has the prestige, reputation and good record of David Richards or Geoff Willis?

McLaren's reliability will be a big issue. They've had a year working on the car in the background but very advanced cars often struggle in race conditions, as McLaren did in 1997. Personally I think 2005 will be the right time to join them.

[Mark Webber]

Boots I'm not! I'll admit Bar is a better "team" but the car is another thing .

Jag and Bar have alot in common

Bar has a good driver JB and Jag have a good /great driver Mark
Jag have a good car and motor . Bar have a good car but less than great motor
Bar have a good team , Jag have a weaker team
both on same tyres
both will have weak 2nd drivers but I think Bar's will be stronger if Klien is picked .

So what is better a strong car OR a strong team ?

You say I'm blind to Jag in the positive and I'd say you r blind to the negitive . You very rarely say good things about Jag (and THERE are good things to say ) I try my best to be open minded to Facts and of course what we all read but in Jags case I don't see much of that from you ?
This is not a dig at you Boots just my opinion and I'm sorry if I've misread it

[Mr V]

Originally posted by Mark Webber

Bar will struggle with a weakend driver lineup and Honda powerplants but tyre will save them

Change the BAR for Jag, Honda for Ford and you have a reversal of 2003

[Mark Webber]

they have alot in common will be a tough fight for both in 04 but there stars JB and of course Webber will shine

[RWC]

Well here are my predictions for formula none for 2004

*Ferrari will only be embroiled in three scandlous acts over the whole season.How on earth they achieve such a low number is beyond me!
*Ron dennis will once again wear his heart on his sleave,run the team perfectly,whine(alot!!!) and be understandable to none of us
*bernie will make several hundred million more from 'his' cash cow and (as usual) kick up a horrid stink anytime anyone takes steps to redirect the money where it belongs (back to the sport)
*mad mosely will make several stupid and pointless statements through the year.None of them will have anything to do with his job
*The stewards will make several completely stupid rulings,proving them to be the amateurs they really are
*the fia will make several unbelievable rulings on protests over the stewards dumb decisions.

*the fia won't be accused of ferrari bias ONCE!!!!!


*and the winner of the WDC is:Oh sorry i took no notice-with all the stupid politics in f1 i didn't think anyone really cared












Sorry,they will-as usual.just my little joke

[Skam85]

well said

[Smokey 6 litre]

1)Kimmi, champion.
2)TGF, Retirement after second in championship.
3)Montoya third, would've had a chance to win but ruined by Williams favouring Ralf at start of season.
4)Alonso, Solid 4th, with 2 great wins.
5)Barrichello, another solid season, with one outstanding drive.
6)Jenson Button, supprising 6th, but deserved through hard work and great driving.
7)Trulli, 3 poles, 1st win.
8)Coulthard, miserable season...