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23 May 2011, 16:28 (Ref:2884565) | #1 | ||
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Virtual World Championships
[[WARNING: extreme nonsense ahead. Please jump to the tables below. You has been warned!]]
Sometimes random events happen and change the outcome of a race or WC. For example, that (in)famous exploding tyre in Mansell's car in Adelaide's finale; that season three drivers ended in three points. Or the nut popping out of Mansell's rear wheel in front of live TV in Hungaroring, making Nigel to lose 12 points to Piquet (Piquet won the title by 12 points with less wins). One of my favs random events was Monaco'84. It was widely accepted that, the race had not been stopped, Prost would have lost the win. But the funny side of it is that Monaco's win caused the lost of title for Prost. He got half of 9 points for the stopped race, but he had got full 6 points for the not stopped race: +1.5 points... Prost lost the title by 0.5 points... Or perhaps the random outcome of the event at Suzuka's Casio chicane between "those" two celebrities. Or the incredible finale in the last lap of 2008. Or the convoluted random combinations in 2007, with three drivers in just one point... The list goes on and on... So, why I'm telling all that? The point is: if we could repeat a season with the same drivers and cars and the same general context, the outcome of the title could be different and perhaps another driver could win the title. It is like the Many-Worlds concept in Quantum Mechanics or the Logically Possible Worlds in Philosophy Blah, blah, blah, I know What I try to say is it's reasonable to explore how past WCs could have been and to evaluate the past titles according to it. In statistic we can create "alternative worlds" by mean of "bootstrapping". Basically it is to run a virtual season where "races" are chosen randomly among the races that really happened. For example, perhaps a race like Valencia doesn't happen again or maybe there are two races like Singapur. If we run many virtual reruns for a given past season (let's say 2005) we can see what percentage of times Alonso, Raikkonen or Schummy could have won that title. The percentage of (virtual) titles are in the following tables: Code:
Percentage of Virtual Titles: 2003: SCH 43% RAI 38% MON 18% BAR 1% 2004: SCH 95% BAR 5% 2005: ALO 79% RAI 21% 2006: ALO 73% SCH 26% 2007: RAI 35% HAM 31% ALO 28% MAS 6% Code:
2008: HAM 47% MAS 41% RAI 5% KUB 5% 2009: BUT 67% VET 23% BAR 6% WEB 3% HAM 1% 2010: VET 29% ALO 29% WEB 18% HAM 20% BUT 4% Code:
Percentage of VT along the seasons: 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 SCH 43 95 0 26 0 - - 0 RAI 38 0 21 0 35 5 - - MON 18 0 0 0 - - - - BAR 1 5 0 0 0 0 6 0 ALO 0 0 79 73 28 1 0 29 HAM - - - - 31 47 1 20 MAS - 0 0 0 6 41 0 0 KUB - - - 0 0 5 0 0 BUT 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 4 VET - - - - 0 0 23 29 WEB 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 18 Adding the percentages along the seasons we get a sort of "total virtual titles" for each driver (MS is not put because he has many more titles in the past seasons, so his count would be not complete in this table). It is interesting to see how the number of Virtual Titles agrees pretty well with the real number of titles. The number of active seasons if written as well. Code:
Virtual Titles (and number of active seasons): ALO 2.10 10 ********************* HAM 0.99 4 ********** RAI 0.99 9 ********** BUT 0.71 11 ******* VET 0.52 4 ***** MAS 0.47 8 ***** WEB 0.21 9 ** MON 0.18 6 ** BAR 0.12 18 * KUB 0.05 5 ยท Code:
Virtual Titles per active season: HAM 0.248 ************************* ALO 0.210 ********************* VET 0.130 ************* RAI 0.110 *********** BUT 0.065 ******* MAS 0.059 ****** MON 0.030 *** WEB 0.023 ** KUB 0.010 * BAR 0.007 * One last word of "advice". All those numbers refers to performances of drivers with their particular cars in those years. It doesn't measure the "intrinsic" quality of drivers, but the quality of the pair driver-car. |
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23 May 2011, 16:41 (Ref:2884570) | #2 | |
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Interesting concept - am I right in thinking that the so-called "Crashgate" scandal would be another example?
Very interesting, it would be nice to see how many alternative seasons people can come up with. Presumably you have to stick to events that happened in specific races and not just conjure up magical results - you have to stick with what would seem the most logical outcome? Last edited by dyewat808; 23 May 2011 at 16:46. |
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24 May 2011, 02:56 (Ref:2884897) | #3 | ||
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Schummy great stuff as always, lateral thinker...
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24 May 2011, 03:37 (Ref:2884907) | #4 | |||
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Quote:
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24 May 2011, 03:45 (Ref:2884908) | #5 | ||
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