[WEC] Toyota LMP1 Discussion

[Hawkwood]

Originally Posted by J Jay

Didn't Ishiura test the TS030 (correct me if I'm wrong)? I thought he wasn't considered because of a lack of pace after that.

He did, and yes he was 'dropped' from consideration.
The official reason was that he had back pain so couldn't drive the car properly, and it seems most people took that to mean 'lack of pace'.

I honestly disagree with both of those reasons, he has been excellent in both Super GT and Super Formula since since, so his back is obviously alright, and so is his pace.

I think he wasn't considered because of his lack of working English (an issue that Nakajima and Kobayashi do not have).
And if you think about it, Toyota cannot come out and say it didn't take a Japanese driver because he can't adequately communicate with the engineers (this wouldn't go over well in Japan I bet), even though the team is German based and English speaking.

Anyway, Ishiura would be a good signing talent-wise, but would only be considered if he can now communicate properly with the engineers.

[J Jay]

Originally Posted by Hawkwood

He did, and yes he was 'dropped' from consideration.
The official reason was that he had back pain so couldn't drive the car properly, and it seems most people took that to mean 'lack of pace'.

I honestly disagree with both of those reasons, he has been excellent in both Super GT and Super Formula since since, so his back is obviously alright, and so is his pace.

I think he wasn't considered because of his lack of working English (an issue that Nakajima and Kobayashi do not have).
And if you think about it, Toyota cannot come out and say it didn't take a Japanese driver because he can't adequately communicate with the engineers (this wouldn't go over well in Japan I bet), even though the team is German based and English speaking.

Anyway, Ishiura would be a good signing talent-wise, but would only be considered if he can now communicate properly with the engineers.

Well as the saying goes, if you're good enough, you're fit and fluent in English enough. Pace aside, if language was an issue three years is in my opinion enough time to seriously work on it. Or maybe circumstances have changed enough now that Ishiura can be considered. What if TMG are waiting for Sarrazin to call it a day?

It could be TMC wanting to keep one of their star drivers racing primarily in Japan - for instance everyone expected Nissan to bring over one of Quintarelli or Oliveira for the GT-R, but in the end they stuck with Matsuda (not that he is slow, but the other two are faster) and nabbed the likes of Pla and Tincknell instead. It pays to have a big roster of factory drivers so nobody is having to do too much, although it shouldn't be too big - I'm sure Audi can expand on that!

On the subject of doing too much, remember Nakajima's rather hectic schedule last year with Super GT, Super Formula & WEC; there were more than a couple of clashes towards the end of the season. He's dropped SGT this year so if Ishiura were to move to LMP1 he'd have to drop either that or SF (probably SGT). Perhaps he doesn't want to and would prefer to compete domestically for now.

[Spyderman]

Originally Posted by J Jay

look at Lieb at Porsche; while he is a bit younger his pace compares well to his teammates, whereas Wurz struggles nowadays.

Just a small correction - Lieb is 3 years older than Jani (the youngest driver in #18).

[J Jay]

Originally Posted by Spyderman

Just a small correction - Lieb is 3 years older than Jani (the youngest driver in #18).

Sorry, I didn't mean to say Lieb was younger than his [Porsche] teammates, rather that he is younger than Wurz by a few years (without googling, 5/6 years younger?)

[Spyderman]

Oh! my apologies.

[Gingers4Justice]

Toyota are in a funny situation. The TS040 was a cut above the rest of the field in 2014, and when Davidson and Buemi had the thing hooked up, they were untouchable. Wurz, Sarrazin and Kaz were given the occasional fright by Porsches in the latter WEC rounds, but even they had the measure of the rest of the field. And let's not forget, but for the failure of an extremely trivial item at Le Mans last year, that crew would have won the big one at a canter.

Amid all the disappointment with the TS040's displays this season, last year's dominant car is only in its second season. We were told they found 2.5 seconds over winter before the Prologue, and the drivers had a spring in their step - and why shouldn't they? If you'd asked anyone on this forum immediately after Bahrain last season where they think Toyota would be in 2015 if they found another 2.5-3 seconds, most would answer they'd be pretty racey again, if not continuing in the same vein, with Porsche and Audi feeding on their scraps.

Then after the Prologue, Toyota sounded a little less bullish. The drivers were left scratching their heads. A bold strategy at Siverstone and some heroic driving from the #1 crew earned them a podium, but it masked the true performance deficit. At Spa the penny finally dropped. Toyota were nowhere. Despite making gains that would normally be impressive by anyone's standards, they had been completely usurped by some truly outrageous gains from Porsche and Audi, the like of which I doubt we will see for a very long time. I think the VAG siblings even surprised themselves.

The frustrating part for TMG is that they've done nothing wrong, and given their budget haven't done anything we wouldn't do. They comfortably had the best package, and refined lots of things and found an impressive amount of time in what is the car's second season of development. There was no need to reinvent the wheel in any aspect of the programme - Wurz and Sarrazin may have been weak links, but they won races last year and could have taken the biggest prize of them all back to Cologne. As an armchair pundit in March, the only thing you'd really say was missing would be a third car for Le Mans.

Have some sympathy for Toyota. The brief has changed completely due to the incredible efforts of their rivals. Wurz, Sarrazin, the NA V8, the super-capacitor etc might all have come under review at the end of this season anyway, but all of them were more than good enough last season. None of us can pretend that it was obvious that Toyota really needed to ring the changes for the 2015.

[J Jay]

I don't see anybody making a convincing case that TMG have "dun goofed" in this thread G4J, most of the ire is quite rightly directed at TMC for making the guys at Cologne stretch their resources to the absolute limit. I won't argue that they have done exactly what they should have for this season either, and the idea that any of this is their fault is preposterous.

However, the reality is that despite their progress they have been gazumped by the VAG bros and I think it's natural for questions to be asked about what they can do to get back to the front. Obviously most of the enquiries (and resulting changes) are being made to the car, but that doesn't mean the personnel are untouchable. Before anyone takes it the wrong way it doesn't mean that they are automatically rubbish either, but if there is a perceived improvement to be made on the driver side then it's worth talking about at least.

From the last page or so, I think most people would agree that Buemi, Davidson & Nakajima have shown enough speed over the last two years to not have their seats questioned. Probably ditto for Conway, although it's not quite as fast as the preceding trio but it's also not for as long a period either. Wurz is a slightly different case because of his incessant development work but is he reaching the point where even this won't make up for his race pace? Sarrazin has lost a bit more than the ultimate speed has had in his (younger) Peugeot days, and he's talked before about doing other things, but never outside the realm of what his current contract allows.

Let's not forgot that Toyota ditched Lapierre as well. On the face of it making a pair of errors at Le Mans would be enough to get the chop, but look at Audi/McNish - if you're fast enough then you can get away with pretty big mistakes. I know there are still rankles about how Lapierre's situation was handled (there is a part of me that never wants to find out exactly what went on) but personally I don't blame TMG deciding to drop him because he wasn't quick enough.

[Acid09]

I have always been a bit disappointed in Sarrazin's performance ever since he joined Toyota.

He was still mighty quick the first 1-2 years but none of that "out of this world" stuff" that made him so famous during the Peugeot days.

Not sure if it's age or maybe the Diesel cars just happened to suit him really well?

[Hawkwood]

Never been a massive Sarrazin fan to be honest, though I'm a huge fan of Alex Wurz, but if they are falling behind as much as is being said here, could there be a danger of Toyota doing just what they did in F1 and hanging on too long?
Remember how they kept Schumacher and Trulli past their sell-by dates?

Having said that of course, even the Lotterer-Treluyer-Fassler trio couldn't have done much with this year's Toyota.

No point having the world's best drivers if your car is two seconds per lap slower.

Although that's no reason not try and hire the best.

[Acid09]

Originally Posted by Hawkwood

Having said that of course, even the Lotterer-Treluyer-Fassler trio couldn't have done much with this year's Toyota.

Of course not, it's more about the comparisons within the team. Wurz & Sarrazin are not able to go the speeds of Davidson & Nakajima anymore, let alone Buemi.

And that is sort of a problem, because they all have the same material.

[TF110]

Its a bit sad to read the posts now of how Toyota is doing. Even in the media and the race broadcasts you hear how theyre struggling. They arent really struggling, theyre pace is just slow relative to the VAG twins. Thats down to budget. Theyre outspent by more than 2-1. Its also sad that lmp1 is now this much money just to be competitive. Rebellion and Kolles are nowhere. Barely a second faster than lmp2.

Looking back, Toyota being 2-3 seconds faster per lap was doubted by many here and other forums. Some felt they should have did exactly what they are doing in upgrading the '14 car since it had the advantage last year. Now look, its not enough to even get a podium. Who would think that a 3 second gain at LM is not enough?

The driver situation I think will definitely change next year. I would like to see Kobayashi and Ishiura, but I think only one driver gets replaced in the #2 car. Maybe Kovalainen comes onboard. If these guys all join, theyll need another car. Dont forget JEV tested early this year as well.

[Artur]

Originally Posted by Gingers4Justice

Toyota are in a funny situation. The TS040 was a cut above the rest of the field in 2014, and when Davidson and Buemi had the thing hooked up, they were untouchable. Wurz, Sarrazin and Kaz were given the occasional fright by Porsches in the latter WEC rounds, but even they had the measure of the rest of the field. And let's not forget, but for the failure of an extremely trivial item at Le Mans last year, that crew would have won the big one at a canter.

Audi also had troubles during Le Mans 2014. If both cars(Toyota's#7 and Audi's #1) had a completely trouble-free race, Audi likely would still have won because they had the best pace. For quick reference, Audi's fastest lap of the race was equal to Nakajima's pole(3.21.7)

Despite making gains that would normally be impressive by anyone's standards, they had been completely usurped by some truly outrageous gains from Porsche and Audi, the like of which I doubt we will see for a very long time. I think the VAG siblings even surprised themselves.

Picking on what I said above, Audi would go up on the energy allocation while Toyota would remain the same, so, if Audi was already faster(at Le Sarthe, only. But that's the race they care) last year, it was predictable they would easily beat Toyota, this year.

Curiously, I remember, shortly after the Prologue(when it became clear they improved 5s), that a driver(one of the Audi guys, IIRC) was asked if he was surprised by the huge improvements and he said no. He said it was expected this sort of gains with such competition and VAG cars increasing their energy storage.

On that sense, Toyota will massively improve again simply because of going from 6 to 8MJ(as will Audi from 4 o 6), then there will be all the other improvements on chassis, aero, powertrain and whatnot

I'm not guaranteeing it will happen, but I won't be surprised if we see these sort of gains again, next year.

Originally Posted by TF110

Rebellion and Kolles are nowhere. Barely a second faster than lmp2.

Rebellion's fastest qualifying lap was 3.5s faster than fastest LMP2 lap, eventhough CLM was just 1.1s

As for race fastest laps, the same gap from Rebellion to fastest LMP2 while Kolles car increases it's advantage to 2s

Btw, 3.5s is also the gap from Rebellion to Toyota's fastest car. So, Rebellion(with no effort whatsoever, not even testing or anything) is equally distant from Toyota and LMP2

[GasperG]

Originally Posted by TF110

... Now look, its not enough to even get a podium. Who would think that a 3 second gain at LM is not enough?

Toyota newer achieved that rumoured 3s gain at LeMans compared to last year.

[Victor_RO]

Originally Posted by Artur

Audi also had troubles during Le Mans 2014. If both cars(Toyota's#7 and Audi's #1) had a completely trouble-free race, Audi likely would still have won because they had the best pace. For quick reference, Audi's fastest lap of the race was equal to Nakajima's pole(3.21.7)

Not according to http://fiawec.alkamelsystems.com/Res...river_Race.PDF, the fastest laps by Audi and Toyota during the race in 2014 were in the 3:22-3:23 bracket, so at least a second off pole. And fastest lap in a 24h race is irrelevant if the car cannot maintain the pace all race long.

Originally Posted by GasperG

Toyota newer achieved that rumoured 3s gain at LeMans compared to last year.

They did in terms of race pace. Fastest race lap by Nakajima in the 2014 race was a 3:23 (see above), fastest lap by a Toyota driver in the 2015 race was a 3:20.8 by Davidson.

[J Jay]

Originally Posted by Victor_RO

Not according to http://fiawec.alkamelsystems.com/Res...river_Race.PDF, the fastest laps by Audi and Toyota during the race in 2014 were in the 3:22-3:23 bracket, so at least a second off pole. And fastest lap in a 24h race is irrelevant if the car cannot maintain the pace all race long.

Just to expand on this - I agree that while Audi would have had a not-insignificant chance of winning had the #7 not died, to say the R18 was likely to win would be a stretch. The #2 was catching the #7 during the night (I've never bought the explanation that Toyota were happy with 1-2 minute gap if they had the pace to lap the field), but come morning the #7 would have picked up pace just as the Audi did - "happy hour" applies to every car that's left to take advantage of it!

The pace the #2 showed following its turbo change and loss of hybrid power was impressive, but the time lost for the former would have seen the TS040 take the lead again, if it wasn't leading already (and assuming it ran trouble-free to that point, which isn't unreasonable since the #8's problems were all related to its crash). It would have been a close and exciting finish but on balance I would have expected Toyota to have won.

[Gingers4Justice]

Originally Posted by Artur

Audi also had troubles during Le Mans 2014. If both cars(Toyota's#7 and Audi's #1) had a completely trouble-free race, Audi likely would still have won because they had the best pace. For quick reference, Audi's fastest lap of the race was equal to Nakajima's pole(3.21.7)

"If both cars had a completely trouble-free race...", but the point is, they didn't. The #7's retirement was down to a rather trivial part, while the Audi's delays were down to something more fundamental, as both the remaining cars were struck with similar issues and lengthy repairs. There is little doubt in my mind that if the #7 hadn't had the fire with the wiring loom, it would have gone on to win by several laps. It's also worth noting that the #7 didn't get a chance to set any laps in happy hour, and that its pace was far more consistent than the Audis.

Picking on what I said above, Audi would go up on the energy allocation while Toyota would remain the same, so, if Audi was already faster(at Le Sarthe, only. But that's the race they care) last year, it was predictable they would easily beat Toyota, this year.

Well as I said above, Toyota had the measure of Audi all week and when Nakajima pulled to the side just after Arnage at dawn, his team were in complete control of the race. Apart from the fact Audi equaled the pole time in the race, I'm not sure what evidence there is to suggest Audi were faster - they were second and lagging, and were behind Toyota all week. I would expect Audi to close the gap significantly given that they were going up to 4MJ, but to overtake Toyota by such a huge margin while they themselves made gains is still thoroughly surprising in my book.

Curiously, I remember, shortly after the Prologue(when it became clear they improved 5s), that a driver(one of the Audi guys, IIRC) was asked if he was surprised by the huge improvements and he said no. He said it was expected this sort of gains with such competition and VAG cars increasing their energy storage.

On that sense, Toyota will massively improve again simply because of going from 6 to 8MJ(as will Audi from 4 o 6), then there will be all the other improvements on chassis, aero, powertrain and whatnot

Whoever said that wouldn't have been surprised by the time they got to the Prologue - Audi had the 2015 car testing last year, and they knew what had to be done. I agree with you that Toyota won't be this far off again, and that's down to the fact they are basically "doing an Audi", and giving up now and starting work for next season. It's easy to see how Audi improved, and how Toyota will improve...but with Porsche it's just plain scary.

[Gingers4Justice]

Originally Posted by J Jay

Just to expand on this - I agree that while Audi would have had a not-insignificant chance of winning had the #7 not died, to say the R18 was likely to win would be a stretch. The #2 was catching the #7 during the night (I've never bought the explanation that Toyota were happy with 1-2 minute gap if they had the pace to lap the field), but come morning the #7 would have picked up pace just as the Audi did - "happy hour" applies to every car that's left to take advantage of it!

The pace the #2 showed following its turbo change and loss of hybrid power was impressive, but the time lost for the former would have seen the TS040 take the lead again, if it wasn't leading already (and assuming it ran trouble-free to that point, which isn't unreasonable since the #8's problems were all related to its crash). It would have been a close and exciting finish but on balance I would have expected Toyota to have won.

Isn't this why 2014 was such a great race? It's right up there with my favourites, and with all the attrition at the front, it was a bit more old school. Despite the fact this year's race (especially the first half) was such an epic, we're still debating the "what ifs" now. 2014 perhaps wasn't edge-of-your-seat excitement, but it was fascinating. The race nobody seemed to want to win.

[Gingers4Justice]

Originally Posted by J Jay

I don't see anybody making a convincing case that TMG have "dun goofed" in this thread G4J, most of the ire is quite rightly directed at TMC for making the guys at Cologne stretch their resources to the absolute limit. I won't argue that they have done exactly what they should have for this season either, and the idea that any of this is their fault is preposterous.

However, the reality is that despite their progress they have been gazumped by the VAG bros and I think it's natural for questions to be asked about what they can do to get back to the front. Obviously most of the enquiries (and resulting changes) are being made to the car, but that doesn't mean the personnel are untouchable. Before anyone takes it the wrong way it doesn't mean that they are automatically rubbish either, but if there is a perceived improvement to be made on the driver side then it's worth talking about at least.

Just seen this reply, I'd like to return to it.

I'm not saying questions shouldn't be asked - in fact, quite the opposite. I was remarking that the sort of questions Toyota would have been asking anyway need more definitive answers than they might have done had they been more competitive.

Toyota's situation reminds me of the situation many reigning Premier League champions have found themselves in the following season. The team that was the best the season before has the least to improve, and that's actually quite difficult - the other sides know their weaknesses better, and while the champions celebrate, the teams behind them knuckle down straight away and address those weaknesses.

Then the season comes around, and the champions struggle. Every man and his dog can apparently spot the blinding obvious about what's wrong and what needs addressing - why couldn't one of the world's greatest managers spot it and do something about it in the off-season? Come on, it's obvious Carrick is past it! Where's the replacement for Paul Scholes? How's Anderson STILL getting a game? Pundits who never did anything with their careers after retiring from playing used to love to twist the knife on Sir Alex Ferguson the moment they started to struggle, as if all the issues were obvious the season before when they were lifting the trophy and the same team had convincingly beat everyone else.

But that's when you rebuild and get back to where you were before - and that involves tough decisions, and not letting sentimentality get in the way. It will be a new look (and new sounding) Toyota next season, and I would be surprised if at least one of Wurz and Sarrazin isn't dropped from the full-season line up in favour of someone younger (although it would be extremely brave not to consider them both for Le Mans if a third car is to be involved).

[GT6]

Well i think next year is in the hands of the top people at toyota, with all the other factory teams involved they have the opportunity to show the world that Toyota are capable of both in the modern technology and the production of reliable cars, but it will need them to be fully committed and prepared to finance the project they have the ability to do so but do they have the willingness is another matter.

[J Jay]

Originally Posted by G4J

Toyota's situation reminds me of the situation many reigning Premier League champions have found themselves in the following season. The team that was the best the season before has the least to improve, and that's actually quite difficult - the other sides know their weaknesses better, and while the champions celebrate, the teams behind them knuckle down straight away and address those weaknesses.

Then the season comes around, and the champions struggle. Every man and his dog can apparently spot the blinding obvious about what's wrong and what needs addressing - why couldn't one of the world's greatest managers spot it and do something about it in the off-season?

The world's greatest manager - there's no "one of" about it - had a way of getting the performances out of his squad, so despite the exasperation of many he didn't see a need to fix it any more so than other areas of the squad. This obviously hurt the team in the long-run (and was one of the many mismanaged aspects of the transition) but when a club has spent so long with so much success under an authoritative, hierarchical figurehead then you tend to trust their judgement.

But football aside, I do understand what you are saying. In a more traditional motorsport sense it's like the unenviable situation where a driver says that a car feels just fine, but they are still at the bottom end of the time sheet. In fact that's probably exactly what the drivers are saying - the car has improved noticeably, but it's not enough to be on pace with the competition. Toyota aren't necessarily going to do anything different to what they were already planning if they were in the mix, but the alarming lack of pace should have made it clear to everyone involved (especially TMC) that these developments need to happen as soon as possible to keep up with the VAG bros and what they could achieve with markedly increased resources. Hopefully for TMG's sake Audi and Porsche will hit diminishing returns, although in the former's case that could be offset by going up to 6MJ.

As for drivers, while I'm not advocating a wholesale shuffle I don't see much point in getting the car up to scratch only for it to be potentially let down by not having the best drivers available behind the wheel. On the flip-side you can argue for continuity in one key aspect of the team while another is going through such a radical change, but I'm of the opinion that a new car is a good time to get new drivers in if that is deemed necessary so they can become familiar with the team as quickly as possible.

Originally Posted by G4J

Come on, it's obvious Carrick is past it! Where's the replacement for Paul Scholes? How's Anderson STILL getting a game? Pundits who never did anything with their careers after retiring from playing used to love to twist the knife on Sir Alex Ferguson the moment they started to struggle, as if all the issues were obvious the season before when they were lifting the trophy and the same team had convincingly beat everyone else.

How dare you

I'll have you know that Carrick has been the lynchpin of United's recent success, and was criminally underrated right up until the 12-13 season, when suddenly everyone rated him highly in order to slag off whoever his midfield partner was at the time (although he works best at the base of a trio with two willing runners ahead of him, Pirlo-style). In fact, on a good day and despite their physical differences, if you were to watch him play you'll say "It's hard to believe it's not Scholes..."

[TF110]

Its at least encouraging to see Toyota improved a couple seconds with the same basic car using the same mj class. While it wasnt 4-6 seconds, they didnt jump to the next step up in hybrid energy allowed. So imo, a jump of 2 or 3 seconds per lap is 'guaranteed' if you go to the next mj class. If Toyota could have went to 8mj, maybe they gain another couple seconds? If thats the case, they might have been on pace or at least way closer.

The tire issue (their reasoning for taking so long to do a 3:20) hopefully is resolved for '16 also. That was something I didnt understand. Doesnt seem to affect them anymore, though.

So for 2016 we know some facts and hard rumors-

Car name, TS050 (CONFIRMED)
Engine, Turbo (CONFIRMED) 3+L V6 (rumored)
Hybrid, Battery (CONFIRMED) Panasonic (rumored)
ERS class, 8mj (soft confirmation) dual ers-k (rumored & current)
'Trick' Tech, SiC [silicon carbide] semi-conductor (STRONG rumor)
Driver change, Kobayashi upgraded from reserve driver (STRONG rumor) Wurz contract ends?
Extras, Increased budget (CONFIRMED) 3rd car at LM (rumored) new team name (CONFIRMED) /Livery (STRONG rumor)

Anything else floating around out there?

[TF110]

Dupe

[TzeiTzei]

Originally Posted by TF110

Engine, Turbo (CONFIRMED) 3+L V6 (rumored)

Didn't Hindy & Goodwin mention during the Nurburgring race that according to their information it would be closer to 2 litres?

[nemanjas]

Originally Posted by TF110

So for 2016 we know some facts and hard rumors-

Car name, TS050 (CONFIRMED)
Engine, Turbo (CONFIRMED) 3+L V6 (rumored)
Hybrid, Battery (CONFIRMED) Panasonic (rumored)
ERS class, 8mj (soft confirmation) dual ers-k (rumored & current)
'Trick' Tech, SiC [silicon carbide] semi-conductor (STRONG rumor)
Driver change, Kobayashi upgraded from reserve driver (STRONG rumor) Wurz contract ends?
Extras, Increased budget (CONFIRMED) 3rd car at LM (rumored) new team name (CONFIRMED) /Livery (STRONG rumor)

Anything else floating around out there?

From my perspective, looks like battery storage is in testing, but they are not 100% sure that it will be in new car. On the other side, TMG is determined to have 8MJ car next year - there is no way to win nowdays if you are not in top energy class. LM24 especially. And they want to win.

There will be a new monocoque also and they are looking at linked suspension.

There was no mention of third car, but feeling is that budget is improved for next year because they moved a lot of things from 2017 plans, and that cannot be done without bigger budget.

[GasperG]

Originally Posted by TzeiTzei

Didn't Hindy & Goodwin mention during the Nurburgring race that according to their information it would be closer to 2 litres?

I also heard them mention that, but one commentator mentioned rumoured 3L turbo the other just said something like "I think it will be closer to 2L".