The 2024 Rendezvous

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

here is another one which puts the price at up to £8000 per family per year .https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/c...ng?format=750w

Interesting read. I note that Andrew Montford also uses GW as the unit for peak demand, and TWh as the annual consumption. Is he making the same error in units that you accused me of making?

[grantp]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

True. But if your neighbour is throwing trash in the street, does that mean you stop placing your waste in your bins for collection?

It could be said that you start by sorting your own house out first, and then lead by example.

Admittedly, to convince some of those other countries to follow suit is a more difficult challenge.

One way to help the neighbours understand (should they really care and wish to understand) is to avoid causing the perceived problem.

What you can't morally do is sweep your own industrial pollution onto someone else's carpet, even if they really want the money and influence they believe comes with the all-round mess that comes with it.

So once the West has finished curing its own emissions by exporting them to China, et al, and starts to realise that the level of wasted effort and energy is increasing at a rate that far outweighs what they would have created had they kept production and quality control in-house, how, exactly, do they expect to dig their societies out of the technical and moral holes before they are owned by and overwhelmed by those who really have no idea that they should be caring at all on a global scale? Most of them still think of themselves as surviving, just, on a local scale.

I note a report this week that the birth rate in the UK is now equal between the indigenous population and those peoples who have come here in the past generation or two.

At some point the new locals will achieve control and realise that the wealth they sought to share for themselves here and their historical roots elsewhere, are rapidly diminishing to the point of being insufficient.

What then?

Back to locally available energy and materials resources to compete with the parts of the world that never moved away from using them?

The politicians are desperate not to discuss the problem of unaffordable energy that is approaching rapidly. Not so much due to the lack of exploitable resources but rather because the resources available will need more money to make them viable and the Western economy is in no way geared up to re-balance the social budget to make significantly more expensive (but reliable) energy available.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

This last sentence underlines the flaw in the argument you are presenting, and the lack of understanding in the units used.

The previous link provided by Peter - https://grid.iamkate.com/ - shows that the grid capacity is measure in GW - not GWh.

And in the past year, the peak demand has been 37.7GW (as an instantaneous measure).

Now if you are claiming that the continuous demand of 30 million heat pumps is 200GW, then yes this would be a >500% increase in demand.

However, the largest domestic heatpumps require 5000 Watts to run. On average, you are looking at pumps of 3000 Watts. If you had 30 million of these all running at peak capacity, the demand would be (3000W * 30mill) 90GW. Or an increase in peak demand of the grid of 150%.


So I think it needs asking again. If there are 30 million heat pumps in use in the UK, what is the instaneous power demand, or what is the energy demand per year?







Fundamentally wrong. A Kilo Watt hour is the qty (not rate) of energy used in one hour. If after one hour, a KWh of energy was used, then the rate at a moment in time would have been 1 KW (based on a flat rate).

power*time=energy. 1KW*1hour = 1KWh.

I can understand why you and a lot of other people get it wrong .
But the output of a generator is ENERGY , which is rated in KWh .And that is at any moment , or over a time in hours .
If for instance a generator was used to charge batteries , then no power at all is produced , so there is no KW rating .
But the media and advertisers know that most people do not understand the difference which is why a lot of quotes mention KW .


And as for heat pumps , the smaller ones are rated at 8 KW for a small house but most houses would need an 11KW on , and then there is the electric water heating as well .
On top of that is the lagging power factor from all of those electric motors which means it needs a much higher grid rating just to stop blackouts .

Which is why a Government committee said it was impossible as it would need at least a 400% increase in generation capacity

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

But the output of a generator is ENERGY , which is rated in KWh .And that is at any moment , or over a time in hours .
If for instance a generator was used to charge batteries , then no power at all is produced , so there is no KW rating .

I can't fathom how wrong this statement could be.

KWh (the very fact that it is a unit multiplied by time) shows that it can not be at any moment or over a time in hours.

If I was generating 1KW, for 1hour - I would have generated 1KWh. But, at any moment, it was 1KW (the period of time is irrelevant for a moment in time).

Taking the 'charging a battery' example.

Generator A has a capacity of 1KW. It is used to charge a battery for 5 hours. The peak output was 1KW, and the energy output was 5KWh.
Generator B has a capacity of 5KW. It is used to charge a battery for 1 hour. The peak output was 5KW, and the energy output was 5KWh.
Same energy output, different capacity.

A power station rated at 50GW, if running at full capacity for 24 hours, would have produced 1,200GWh of energy.
A power station rated at 250GW, if running at full capacity for 24 hours, would have produced 6,000GWh of energy.

Both power stations would have been capable of supporting a demand for 1,000GWh over the course of the day. But only the second power station would have the capacity to support a demand of 200GW.

I can generate 500GWh with a generator of 1KW - it would just take a very long time to do so.

Going back to the demand from heat pumps. An example of an 11KW heat pump (e.g. Daikin Monobloc Air Source Heat Pump 11 KW EDLQ011CV3) has a peak input power of 3.10KW when heating.

[Tel 911S]

[QUOTE=crmalcolm;4204599]I can't fathom how wrong this statement could be.

KWh (the very fact that it is a unit multiplied by time) shows that it can not be at any moment or over a time in hours.
time).

.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That is like saying you cannot be doing 60 MILES PER HOUR at any one moment

[Tel 911S]

And the heat pump factor .Even if the running load is only 3 to 4 KW , on start up electric motors use about 5 times that .
So , if you can guarantee that the 30 odd million do not start at the same time , that would only be an extra 120 GWh of generation without counting the electric water heating needed for them or the extra needed for charging up EVs .

[VIVA GT]

This has been a very interesting and well mannered read, thank you.
Apart from during my youth I have always someone who 'does as he's told', respects authority (including governments and others in control), and I've generally believed what I've heard from all of the 'respected' media.
That all changed for me when Covid happened... Initially I took it all on face value and believed the scare stories but my wife is far more questioning (she never takes anything on face value, especially anything I tell her!). Since then I have not simply believed much I've heard/read about 'global problems (good or bad), and certainly believe there is a totally different agenda behind everything that's being pushed at us nowadays. I'm just so pleased that a lot more people are also asking their own questions and voicing their own doubts. In my opinion that is a far more healthy attitude for everyone. I'm not saying that it will change things overnight, but it is a good situation.

[Lancsbreaker]

[QUOTE=Tel 911S;4204608]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

I can't fathom how wrong this statement could be.

KWh (the very fact that it is a unit multiplied by time) shows that it can not be at any moment or over a time in hours.
time).

.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That is like saying you cannot be doing 60 MILES PER HOUR at any one moment

I tend to side with crmalcolm on this....... the app that monitors my solar panels shows the output at any one time in kW - currently as the light is fading its only 0.155 kW. However the yield is shown in kWh, as it is the accumulation of varying outputs over the whole day - currently 16.7 kWh for the day.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

And the heat pump factor .Even if the running load is only 3 to 4 KW , on start up electric motors use about 5 times that .
So , if you can guarantee that the 30 odd million do not start at the same time , that would only be an extra 120 GWh of generation without counting the electric water heating needed for them or the extra needed for charging up EVs .

OK - I'll try and frame the question in another way.

How much capacity (power) is required for 30 million heat pumps to operate simultaneously?
How much energy would 30 million heat pumps consume in a year?

https://www.iso-ne.com/about/what-we...-energy-primer

https://grid.iamkate.com/

[Tel 911S]

[QUOTE=Lancsbreaker;4204658]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

I tend to side with crmalcolm on this....... the app that monitors my solar panels shows the output at any one time in kW - currently as the light is fading its only 0.155 kW. However the yield is shown in kWh, as it is the accumulation of varying outputs over the whole day - currently 16.7 kWh for the day.

Yes , it is confusing , perhaps more people might understand it if the output was quoted in Kilo Watts Per hour .
But that would be technically wrong as generated electricity is energy , which the correct term for is KWh , and Kilo Watts is power , which is not produced until the energy is used .
So most people do not understand that KWh is what is coming out of a generator at any moment , and is the total amount after 1 hours time , and twice that after 2 hours .

[Peter Mallett]

I think we are missing the point, irrespective of the niceties surrounding how energy production is measured, based on current info renewables are doing nothing to alter temperature changes or reduction of CO2. Hence Net Zero is nothing more than a means of impoverishing countries.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

Kilo Watts is power , which is not produced until the energy is used .

You are still incorrect here.

Power can be measured as energy is used, or transferred. Either way, it is the rate of energy being transferred or used.

So when you measure the output of a generator at any moment, the measurement is the power output.

For example - if 60 KWh is transferred over an hour, then the average power output would be 60KW. But, that could also have been an output of 600KW for 5 minutes, and then 0.18KW for the next 55 minutes.

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

So most people do not understand that KWh is what is coming out of a generator at any moment , and is the total amount after 1 hours time , and twice that after 2 hours .

So - in your example:
If 1KWh was coming out at any moment,
1KWh was the total after 1 hours time,
2KWh was the total after 2 hours.

What is the total after 30 minutes?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

I think we are missing the point, irrespective of the niceties surrounding how energy production is measured, based on current info renewables are doing nothing to alter temperature changes or reduction of CO2. Hence Net Zero is nothing more than a means of impoverishing countries.

Who are the countries behind the plan for Net Zero?
Which countries are intended to be impoverished?

[bauble]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Who are the countries behind the plan for Net Zero?
Which countries are intended to be impoverished?

Yours!

[grantp]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

You are still incorrect here.

Power can be measured as energy is used, or transferred. Either way, it is the rate of energy being transferred or used.

So when you measure the output of a generator at any moment, the measurement is the power output.

For example - if 60 KWh is transferred over an hour, then the average power output would be 60KW. But, that could also have been an output of 600KW for 5 minutes, and then 0.18KW for the next 55 minutes.




So - in your example:
If 1KWh was coming out at any moment,
1KWh was the total after 1 hours time,
2KWh was the total after 2 hours.

What is the total after 30 minutes?

The answer, for renewable generators, is unknown until your period of measurement is complete.

This is also true for carbon or nuclear based generation, but the results are somewhat more predictable and therefore are likely to be more accurate to predictions and so more useful for planning purposes.

Richard, with his new solar system, can probably give us some useful numbers about the nominal theoretical optimum generation capability of his system compared to what is actually recorded as delivered. (In whatever time period seems to be useful information but I would suggest hour-by-hour and full-day totals would likely be most relatable.

There are other sources and other measurements. I don't want you to feel that the future of Net Zero falls entirely on your shoulders, Richard, in so far as Tenthers are concerned!

[grantp]

Originally Posted by bauble

Yours!

That does indeed seem to be the answers to both of the original questions.

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Lancsbreaker

T

We also have a tariff with Octopus that pays us a higher export tariff in peak hours (4-7pm) and a lower buy-in tariff between 2-6am, so the controller is set to discharge the battery to the grid at the peak period, and top it up overnight in the cheap period.

My eldest and her family have just moved house and the new place, built in 2017, is full Eco and all electric as there is no gas available. (Except bottled for the barbie, obviously)

There system, with Tesla battery and inscrutable software control systems, is set up like your. Maximise the return in price difference between tariff price periods.

We were there one evening to make sure the kids didn't escape while they were at a charity dinner in Nottingham.

Suddenly, at about 10:15PM, all the power went out.

Puzzled I noted that the entire large village was out but wondered why the battery backup had not kicked in. Power came back about 15 mins later.

Everything restarted - except the non-portable computers.

It turns out the control system is set to aggressively seek returns on the investment so, like yours, it attempts to buy cheap and sell high when it can.

In this case it knew it was now night in mid-winter but also that the cheap rate would be cutting in "soon". So it used everything that was saved, in one way or another, leaving no spare energy to support the house's needs during a mains outage.

We discussed the possibility of including a small energy retention that would always provide a live temporary power source in the form of a UPS. I got the impression that he thought the risks of repeated events were low and so did not currently see a need to change anything.

Now consider a similar sort of risk on wider scale.

Would it be possible and acceptable to make a similar decision? And how would one guarantee how long (or rather how short) the hiatus might be?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by grantp

That does indeed seem to be the answers to both of the original questions.

Maybe. I just find it hard to believe that the UK has a plan for the UK to be impoverished.

[midgetman]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Maybe. I just find it hard to believe that the UK has a plan for the UK to be impoverished.

Too many words there CR.

I just find it hard to believe the UK has a plan.

Every party, every politician, only has one thing in mind - re-election.



Sent from my AC2003 using Tapatalk

[grantp]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Maybe. I just find it hard to believe that the UK has a plan for the UK to be impoverished.

I find it difficult to see any evidence of a plan at all, but that is perhaps too flippant as a response.

May I ask what sort of plan you perceive that would avoid impoverishment, over time, and even, perhaps, bring prosperity to the country and whoever is living in it by then?

[Paul D]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Maybe. I just find it hard to believe that the UK has a plan for the UK to be impoverished.

I find it easy to believe that the UK government has a plan for the UK people to be impoverished, while they line their self-serving pockets!

[grantp]

The world is avidly chasing Net Zero.

The name, Net Zero, may lose something in translation in some parts of the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...imate-warnings

It's the Guardian, so it's a completely accurate report, of course.

[bauble]

The UK establishment has an un-planned drive for impoverishment, however, I seem to recall the MPs voting themselves a health pay rise recently. I foresee a time when hordes of citizens will be paying thousands of pounds to people smugglers to seek a better life in Afghanistan.

Bauble to old to care

[Lancsbreaker]

Originally Posted by grantp

Richard, with his new solar system, can probably give us some useful numbers about the nominal theoretical optimum generation capability of his system compared to what is actually recorded as delivered. (In whatever time period seems to be useful information but I would suggest hour-by-hour and full-day totals would likely be most relatable.

There are other sources and other measurements. I don't want you to feel that the future of Net Zero falls entirely on your shoulders, Richard, in so far as Tenthers are concerned!

Theoretically my system can generate 5kW - I've only actually seen that generated once, although after the first few days I haven't monitored it that avidly..... The daily outputs have varied from a low of 1.1 kWh on a very dull day (9/3/24) to a high of 32.5 kWh on a bright sunny day, 30/3/24. Today (11/4/24) produced 18.4 kWh on a mixed day.....


Answering Peter, I would say that it is logically impossible to say that "renewables are doing nothing to alter temperature changes or reduction of CO2." - since we have no indication of how things would be if we didn't have renewables.......it could be worse, it could be better - we don't know. But logically if renewables do generate power, (and they do ) it would seem reasonable to suppose that the demand for power generation from non-renewable sources might be reduced, don't you think?

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by Lancsbreaker

Theoretically my system can generate 5kW - I've only actually seen that generated once, although after the first few days I haven't monitored it that avidly..... The daily outputs have varied from a low of 1.1 kWh on a very dull day (9/3/24) to a high of 32.5 kWh on a bright sunny day, 30/3/24. Today (11/4/24) produced 18.4 kWh on a mixed day.....


Answering Peter, I would say that it is logically impossible to say that "renewables are doing nothing to alter temperature changes or reduction of CO2." - since we have no indication of how things would be if we didn't have renewables.......it could be worse, it could be better - we don't know. But logically if renewables do generate power, (and they do ) it would seem reasonable to suppose that the demand for power generation from non-renewable sources might be reduced, don't you think?

One of the latest scientific papers [ which of course most of the MSM will ignore ,] shows that human produced CO2 has no measureable effect on the climate .https://dailysceptic.org/2024/04/08/...trols-climate/
But several of the heads of the UN IPCC have actually admitted that the whole Climate Change thing is just an excuse to take money from Capitalist countries to bring about a world Marxist government .
Renewable energy is both very inefficient and very expensive , which is why China , Russia , India etc are all ignoring it and building many more coal fired power stations , which are considerably cheaper .

In the UK renewable energy costs every family about £500 extra every year , and also leads to a lot more power cuts due to its unstable effect .And many real estimates show that would increase to many £ thousands per year if we allowed the NET ZERO insanity to take over