The Very, Very Early 2010 Predictions Thread

[jab]

I know it's early and we don't quite have the full line-up yet, but how about some early predictions?

I think it'll be between these 4 teams

Ferrari

Pros
Alonso
KERS no longer an issue
Started development early

Cons
Questions over Massa's fitness
Potential line-up friction
Incompetancy

McLaren

Pros
Lewis
High development rate, as shown this year
Stability in the team itself

Cons
Potential line-up friction
Developed the car until late on in the season
Losing Merc support (more long-term, though - shouldn't come into play yet)

Red Bull

Pros
Momentum - strong end to the year
Adrian Newey
Arguably the strongest driver line-up in the field

Cons
Developed RB5 right up to the end of the season, combined with smaller budget/less resources
Reliability issues this year (after losing Willis?)
No confirmed engine supply - RB6 is being built around Renault engine but they could pull out

Mercedes

Pros
Reigning champions - confidence high, know how to win
Started development early
Merc will bring more money

Cons
Drifted in the second half of the season
No driver stability
Weaker driver line-up (as it stands)

It's impossible to tell at such an early stage, but I'd be putting my money on Lewis and McLaren at this stage, with Ferrari as nearest challengers as they tend to do well the year after big rule changes (e.g. 1999, 2004, 2006). But usually that's the kiss of death - I tipped Renault for this year, and Honda for 07, and look where that got them

I don't see any other team other than these 4 taking the title, although not all necessarily contending. If you want a wildcard choice, I'd be looking at Sauber if they manage to get to the grid - BMW have kept funding the development of the new car and they ended the year strongly (compared to mid-season, anyway), so if they can put together a decent driver line-up and Qadbak do have the cash after all, they may well surprise a few people. Not quite Brawn-style but they may be consistent points scorers and get on the podium a few times

Discovery of the year will be Hulkenberg. Disappointment of the year will be Renault (again) or Force India failing to progress. And one of the new teams will surprise people and get some decent results - I'd say Lotus at this stage but it could be any of them. I guess US F1 making the grid would be a surprise to many

I think overall it'll be more of a closed shop affair, with a breakaway big 2/3/4. We've had it good for the last couple of years with loads of different winning teams and drivers. I can't see it going on forever unless the hand of Bernie is at work