The Great Shake-Up of 2012/13

[Speed-King]

With 3 series in full on crisis mode, it seems inevitable that the European GT and Sportscar landscape will change quite a bit over the off season.

Instead of polluting other threads with this, here's one to speculate on what will happen.

Here's my take. (From a non-DSC subscriber... might be that I am missing some crucial information)

From Marcel ten Caat:

Also heard this weekend...ELMS will be in good shape next year! (though not necessarily with the same organiser)

Now I asked Marcel on here:

Wondering who the new organiser will be though. Speed Euroseries guys? Ratel?

Marcel replied:

As for Speed Euroseries...have been told they will not be with ELMS next year, but will be part of a support package for a different series.

Interestingly someone called MichB posted this on the ALMS-forums:

Rumblings of the Peter organisation forsaking the Europeam LMS to concentate on WEC, GT Sport pushing for control of ELMS and FIA recognition for their GT-Open after joining FIA GT commission.

Now here's how I think that these pieces fit together:

Jesus Pareja/GTSport will take over promotion of ELMS, that actually makes a lot of sense, especially with Speed Euroseries out of the picture and the ongoing rift between Ratel and the ACO.

Then: SPEED Euroseries leaving the ELMS package has to be motivated and since it is a for-the-drivers rather than a for-the-fans series, I doubt that it is for greater exposure (where would that be found anyway?). So I guess the SPEED guys are a little miffed.

Why would that be?

ELMS wanting to raid their field would seem like a good reason to be miffed, wouldn't it?

Notice also how the ACO-website had an article about Oreca's new CN-car and how the usually superbly informed guys at Endurance Info talk about how CN could be ELMS's savior.

Now what's gonna happen with GT-Open?

My guess: Nothing. The teams in GT-Open race there because they like the product, and the product is 'Sprint races and overall victories for GT-cars', which happens to be exactly the oppossite of what ELMS would have to offer. If ELMS were attractive for these teams, they'd already be racing there. Maybe the ACO will give a LM-autobid for the best GTE-team, it's really the least they can do to thank Parejas for taking the ELMS problem from their shoulders.

So where's ELMS getting its GTs from?

Nowhere, there just aren't enough around. They won't need them where they are going. ELMS is going to become International Sportscar Open for P2s, PCs and CNs. Running on the same weekends as GT-Open (on some really attractive tracks, which was a major fault of this year's calender) and probably with shorter race distances as to not block all the best time of the weekend on Sunday afternoon. I could see them doing one 3 hour race. Or maybe two 2 hour races, but no longer 1000k.

Not that anyone really cares, but where is Speed Euroseries going?

Not a lot of possibilities for that. My best guess: Blancpain. Number of races is about right, good tracks and so far very light on support races. And I mean, what other place to go would be left for them?

GT-Open? Not if Parejas is in charge of raiding their grids.

Ratel's sprint circus? Too much uncertainty at this point, they'll want to secure a partner series early on, that isn't in the cards with GT1, if it even happens.

DTM? WTCC?
DTM is light in support races as well, but it's probably too Germany-centric to be attractive for most SES-teams. WTCC might have an outside shot at it as well, but... eh, I just don't think so.

Edit: Seems like already got one thing wrong...

From Marcel ten Caat again:

As far as I know they will be with WTCC next year.

And what about Ratel?

BES is obviously king for now. As for the rest... who knows. My most likely scenario: One European sprint championship for GT3s or nothing, the GT-WC is done with the deadlines being what they are right now.

[lms]

how about this: lmp2, cn, gt3 (no elms and gt3 europe anymore). Couple european rounds on blancpain circuits, like monza, silverstone, spa (could be a longer event like 12h)....

who will be with wtcc? speed es? thats a european championship no?

[pach233]

I'm glad you started this thread, it's been something that has been on my mind lately. Surely the current situation is unsustainable and some consolidation is necessary. Hopefully egos can be put aside and some common sense can be displayed in the way series are set up. Unfortunately that is easier said than done. I imagine that we won't see gt1 or ELMS back next year in their current form. Some interesting comments tweeted by Marcel Ten Caat today regarding Reiter Engineering.

"We would prefer to continue in a professional championship like this rather than step down to an amateur series such as Blancpain or try to do WEC which costs a fortune"

[I Rosputnik]

Originally Posted by pach233

I'm glad you started this thread, it's been something that has been on my mind lately. Surely the current situation is unsustainable and some consolidation is necessary. Hopefully egos can be put aside and some common sense can be displayed in the way series are set up. Unfortunately that is easier said than done. I imagine that we won't see gt1 or ELMS back next year in their current form. Some interesting comments tweeted by Marcel Ten Caat today regarding Reiter Engineering.

"We would prefer to continue in a professional championship like this rather than step down to an amateur series such as Blancpain or try to do WEC which costs a fortune"

That was the quote in Autosport! (for those reading the GT1 thread)

There seems to be very little positive news for next year with anything thing to do with motorsport. Manufacturers seem to be jumping off where they can due to money!

Nothing is sacred these days.

[Jonerz]

Originally Posted by Speed-King

So where's ELMS getting its GTs from?

Nowhere, there just aren't enough around. They won't need them where they are going. ELMS is going to become International Sportscar Open for P2s, PCs and CNs. Running on the same weekends as GT-Open (on some really attractive tracks, which was a major fault of this year's calender) and probably with shorter race distances as to not block all the best time of the weekend on Sunday afternoon. I could see them doing one 3 hour race. Or maybe two 2 hour races, but no longer 1000k.

And what about Ratel?

BES is obviously king for now. As for the rest... who knows. My most likely scenario: One European sprint championship for GT3s or nothing, the GT-WC is done with the deadlines being what they are right now.

I really like your idea for what should happen to ELMS, mainly because I agree with it and have hoped for the same. Yes, races over six hours are attractive for amateur drivers but they really only work in the former IMSA, now Grand-Am tradition of having four and five driver teams (and I think the 24 Hour series has subscribed to this, and done it with longer races which is brilliant!). But we can all see the open-wheel genes in current Le Mans Prototype cars and so shorter races perhaps with two or three drivers will make for a good product, like the ALMS or Rolex Series but without the GT cars. Furthermore, the sprint race format has proven successful in GT Open. (Though a bit of a failure in FIA GT, because Ratel was trying to piggy back on or combat the success of GT Open, which saturated the market.) Finally, I think removing cars with radically different performance characteristics will also be good for the gentleman driver.

I'm quite excited that European racing is going through its own mini-recession. It will come back in 2013 streamlined and I for one will be glad to see Parejas in charge of what was the ELMS and hopefully the International Sports Car Open and International GT Open do get FIA recognition and can grow their media platform to make it easier for me to take in their products. (Unfortunately, SPEED2 might scuttle my ability to take in those products unless my cable provider and SPEED choose to recognize that one and the other exists.)

Chris

[Speed-King]

who will be with wtcc? speed es? thats a european championship no?

Yes. I guess they'll be support for the European rounds only.

Hmm.... CNs at Salzburg.

I really like your idea for what should happen to ELMS, mainly because I agree with it and have hoped for the same. Yes, races over six hours are attractive for amateur drivers but they really only work in the former IMSA, now Grand-Am tradition of having four and five driver teams (and I think the 24 Hour series has subscribed to this, and done it with longer races which is brilliant!). But we can all see the open-wheel genes in current Le Mans Prototype cars and so shorter races perhaps with two or three drivers will make for a good product, like the ALMS or Rolex Series but without the GT cars. Furthermore, the sprint race format has proven successful in GT Open.

Hadn't even thought about that. Here are my two reasons for shorter formats:

a) as mentioned above: not blocking all the prime time. Within the IGTO package, ELMS would no longer be the sole headliner, so they can't hog all the prime time slots on the weekend schedule and a 6 hour races effectively does that.

b) Small fields are a lot more bearable when the races don't go on forever. I think even being optimistic, a 20 car field for ISCO would be a great success. I can watch that for two hours, no problem. But if I have to watch the same 20 cars droning around for 6 hours on end my nerves may get just a little frayed towards the end. Maybe doubling the IGTO's distances would work: 140 minutes on Saturday, 100 minutes on Sunday.

I just hope Pareja doesn't bring his stupid time penalties on pitstops to the prototype ranks. It's bad enough that they do it in GT-Open. Really messes up the flow of the races.

[Pandamasque]

Originally Posted by pach233

"We would prefer to continue in a professional championship like this rather than step down to an amateur series such as Blancpain or try to do WEC which costs a fortune"

Surely he isn't talking about FIA GT1?

[tux]

Too many championships, too few teams.

[NaBUru38]

Having the ELMS moving to the GT Open calendar sounds great at the first time. But I must warn you that GT Sport has dropped in the past years several championships that didn't work or lost manufacturer backing.

[Speed-King]

Originally Posted by NaBUru38

Having the ELMS moving to the GT Open calendar sounds great at the first time. But I must warn you that GT Sport has dropped in the past years several championships that didn't work or lost manufacturer backing.

Did they? What series would that be?

[MagVanisher]

Originally Posted by tux

Too many championships, too few teams.

Agreed... I'm thinking that Jean Todt should use his powers to merge championships into a bigger one with both LMPs and GTs competing!

[Chiana]

You know I've kinda lost interest to European sportscar racing, outside Le Mans... old FIA GT Euro is dead and buried, new FIA GT is a joke, LMS is in terrible shape, VLN has gone more to the GT3 route, and most of the smaller series and national champs have either been folded as well or invaded by the same boring GT3s you see at every other championship. French GT for example... it's like any other series now. I guess there is IGTO but there is something about that series which makes me always lose interest after a round or two

Still, I too think that they key word for the future of European scenery is: merge, merge, merge

[lms]

there are a couple good gt championships, like adac gt, gt open and of course blancpain.

[Realist66]

The teams at Donington have given their backing to Patrick Peters stewardship but it's been acknolwedged he needs support on the admin and organisational front.

Meanwhile SRO have put plans forward to merge their GT1 and GT3 series.

[NaBUru38]

As far as I know, GT Sport dropped the Mini Challenge, Peugeot 207 Cup and Supercopa Seat León.